Group: Economic growth will weaken more
NEW YORK (AP) - February 21, 2008 The Conference Board said its index of leading economic
indicators fell 0.1 percent last month, after a revised 0.1 percent
drop in December and a 0.4 decline in November.
The index is designed to forecast the direction of the nation's
economy over the next three to six months. Persistent, pronounced
declines over several months could signal a recession is in store.
With the decline, the leading index has fallen 2.0 percent over
the last six months, the biggest drop since early 2001. Weakness
among the components that make up the index has also been more
widespread in recent months.
"What we're seeing is that it's very, very close to
capitulation," said Brian Bethune, an economist with Global
Insight.
The Conference Board report comes a day after the Federal
Reserve released its updated forecast for slower economic growth,
higher unemployment and higher inflation. The dismal outlook for
the year was despite the central bank's aggressive interest rate
cuts in January.
Also Thursday, the Labor Department said the number of newly
laid off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits fell last
week, but the larger-than-expected drop was seen as only a
temporary improvement. Analysts noted claims offices in California
were closed for a day last week for a state holiday, giving laid
off workers one less day to file claims.
The four-week average for claims, which gives a better picture
of labor market trends, rose to 360,500, which was the highest
level since claims spiked in October 2005.