Risk-of-death charts show smokers should beware
WASHINGTON (AP) -June 10, 2008
A 55-year-old man who smokes has almost the same chance of dying
in the next 10 years as a 65-year-old who's never smoked - a stark
example from newly published charts that aim to put some of
Americans' biggest health risks into context.
Risk is a difficult concept, mixing emotion and math - and
people are bombarded with competing warnings of health dangers.
"Useful messages about health risks should address two
questions: 'How big is my risk, and how does this risk compare with
other risks?"' said Dr. Lisa Schwartz of the Veterans Affairs
Medical Center in White River Junction, Vt.
In this week's Journal of the National Cancer Institute,
Schwartz's team combed government death statistics to update
easy-to-read charts comparing the odds of death in the coming 10
years for different ages and diseases.
The charts - intended for posting in doctors' offices - stress
age, gender and smoking status, not more personal risk factors such
as a history of cancer in the family. Among the charts' bottom-line
messages:
-Risks change with age. Accidents, for example, are the single
largest cause of death for men who don't smoke until age 45. Then,
accidents are tied with heart disease until 50, when heart risks
take over.
-Smoking overwhelmingly worsens chances of survival. For
example, 7 of every 1,000 women will die of breast cancer between
ages 60 and 70 - but 14 of 1,000 will die of heart disease in that
period, the charts note. Among smokers, however, the charts show 31
of 1,000 women will die of heart disease between ages 60 and 70,
and another 41 of 1,000 will die of lung cancer.
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On the Net:
Journal of the National Cancer Institute:
http://jnci.oxfordjournals.org/