Report: Climate change linked to national security
WASHINGTON (AP) - June 25, 2008 Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and Central and Southeast
Asia are most vulnerable to warming-related drought, flooding,
extreme weather and hunger. The intelligence assessment warns of
the global impact from the spillover: increased migration and
"water-related disputes," according to prepared remarks by Tom
Fingar, deputy director of national intelligence for analysis, who
was scheduled to speak before a joint House committee hearing.
"We judge that the most significant impact for the United
States will be indirect and result from climate-driven effects on
many other countries and their potential to seriously affect U.S.
national security interests," Fingar stated.
The national intelligence assessment on the national security
implications of global climate change to 2030 is one of a series of
periodic intelligence reports that offer the consensus judgment of
top analysts at all 16 U.S. spy agencies on major foreign policy,
security and global economic issues. Congress requested the report
last year.
The assessment deals with the projected effects of climate
change, and not just the negative ones. It predicts modest
improvements in agricultural yields in North America and more water
resources in South America. It predicts that most U.S. allies will
have the means to cope economically. Fingar says, however, that
unspecified "regional partners" could face severe problems.
Fingar states that the quality of the analysis is hampered by
the fact that climate data tend not to focus on specific countries
but rather on broad global changes.
Africa is among the most vulnerable regions, the report states.
An expected increase in droughts there could cut agricultural
yields of rain-dependent crops by up to half in the next 12 years.
Parts of southern and eastern Asia's food crops are vulnerable
both to droughts and floods, with rice and grain crops potentially
facing up to a 10 percent decline.
As many as 50 million additional people could face hunger by
2020, and the water supply - while larger because of melting
glaciers - will be stressed by growing population and consumption.
Between 120 million and 1.2 billion people in Asia "will continue
to experience some water stress."
Latin America may experience increased precipitation, possibly
cutting tens of millions of people from the ranks of those in want
of water. But from 7 million to 77 million could still be short
water resources because of population growth.
As Fingar represents it, the assessment strikes a considerably
less ominous tone than a report issued a year ago by the Center for
Naval Analyses on the same subject. That report, written by top
retired military leaders, drew a direct correlation between global
warming and the conditions that lead to failed states becoming the
breeding grounds for extremism and terrorism.
"Climate change will provide the conditions that will extend
the war on terror," stated Adm. T. Joseph Lopez, who commanded
U.S. and allied peacekeeping forces in Bosnia in 1996.
"Weakened and failing governments, with an already thin margin
for survival, foster the conditions for internal conflicts,
extremism and movement toward increased authoritarianism and
radical ideologies," the previous report said. "The U.S. will be
drawn more frequently into these situations," stated the report,
which drew on 11 retired generals and admirals.
The naval think tank report was a clarion call to reverse global
warming with a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
Fingar's remarks are far more muted. Where the 63-page private
report mentions terror or terrorism almost 30 times, his 21-page
statement makes no mention of it. "Conflict" appears about 20
times in the think tank report. Fingar mentions "conflict" only
twice, "disputes" once, and "ethnic clashes" once.
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Associated Press writer Seth Borenstein contributed to this
report
