WASHINGTON (AP) - February 12, 2009 As the stimulus plan works its way toward Obama's desk, plenty
of political winners and losers are emerging: Education made out;
governors' budgets, not so much. Alternative energy companies are
poised to fare well, but defense contractors likely won't reap any
benefit.
Taxpayers, reeling from rising unemployment and footing the bill
for much of the $790 billion package, could win or lose: It depends
on whether the investments - and tax cuts aimed at the middle class
- end up paying off. The economy, too, could come out on top or on
bottom: It's not certain that the plan is enough to reverse the
slide that started more than a year ago.
THE WINNERS:
-Obama. The new Democratic president used his popularity and
bully pulpit to get the notoriously sluggish Congress to work
through the huge package in relatively short order. But it wasn't
all smooth sailing, and Obama knows that his political fate is tied
to his ability to reverse the severe economic conditions that he
inherited from former President George W. Bush.
-Senate moderates, specifically Susan Collins, R-Maine., and Ben
Nelson, D-Neb. They helped broker a deal with Senate Majority
Leader Harry Reid and the White House that ultimately cut some $100
billion from the package and paved the way for final passage.
Collins, in particular, showed her power in a Senate where
Democrats lack a filibuster-proof majority; she was able to make
the White House and the Democratic majority bow to her demands.
-Education. The measure includes a $25 billion downpayment on
K-12 school reforms and $47 billion to prevent cuts in state aid to
school districts.
-The jobless and the poor. Unemployment benefits will be
temporarily extended and increased. Food stamps will be boosted.
Billions of dollars will flow for job training and temporary
welfare payments.
-The alternative energy industry. The package allots $50 billion
for energy efficiency and renewable energy programs.
-House Republicans. Adrift after back-to-back electoral losses,
they found their voice against a Democratic speaker and an expanded
majority. They held to the GOP's cornerstone of fiscal conservatism
as they led the effort to define the package as too costly and too
quick. As the economy turns around, however, they run the risk of
being cast as modern-day Herbert Hoovers who wanted to do nothing.
-Big government. The package melds an unprecedented level of new
spending and tax cuts, and it marks an extraordinary intervention
of government into people's lives.
-Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. He was key to brokering a
final deal in line with a White House-imposed deadline of
mid-February. He delivered for the White House but also may have
compromised some of the Senate's independence in the process.
-House Minority Leader John Boehner. He strengthened his hold on
his job, keeping his rank-and-file united against the House
version.
-General Motors Corp. The struggling automaker got a tax break
worth $3.2 billion that preserves its ability to claim refunds
against taxes paid when times were good.
-Large hospices. They won a reprieve - worth about $134 million
- from cuts in what Medicare pays them to care for dying patients.
THE LOSERS:
-Obama. He spent weeks preaching bipartisanship and spending his
political capital but reverted to combative, buck-stops-here talk
when Republicans rebelled at the cost and scope of the plan. With
the economic downturn worsening on his watch, Obama runs the risk
of facing the ultimate political punishment if doesn't turn around
- a one-term presidency.
-Bipartisanship. So much for all that talk. Obama wanted broad
support from members of both political parties. But House Democrats
shut out the GOP as the original bill was written, and no House
Republicans voted for the measure. Only three Republicans voted
with Democrats in the Senate. A largely party line vote was
expected on final passage.
-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. She struggled to control liberals
who demanded more spending, and didn't include Republicans in the
process from the start, undercutting Obama's calls for
bipartisanship. Her strained relationship with Reid also may have
worsened.
-Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. He failed to keep his
members in line and was eclipsed by three members of his caucus -
Collins, Olympia Snowe of Maine and Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania.
They negotiated with the Democrats and ultimately sided with them.
-Homebuilders. They saw a $39 billion tax break that would have
provided a $15,000 tax credit for homebuyers scaled back
substantially.
-Governors. They'll get just $8 billion to defray budget cuts as
they face declining revenues and rising demand for services. On the
bright side, they pushed for massive spending on roads, bridges and
other construction projects to bring jobs - and got $46 billion.
-The nuclear energy industry. It had lobbied hard for $50
billion worth of federal loan guarantees for technologies that use
little or no carbon - but saw it stripped from the package. Count
environmental groups and the conservative Taxpayers for Common
Sense as the victors here.
-The defense industry. There's no significant money for weapons
systems, though lawmakers approved several billion for construction
at military facilities.
-Liberals. They yielded to calls from conservatives for deeper
tax cuts and less spending.
-Large and medium-sized businesses, including manufacturers.
They were cut out of more than $18 billion in tax breaks that would
have expanded their ability to use current losses to get refunds
against taxes paid when they were making large profits.
---
Associated Press writers Matt Yancey, Julie Hirschfeld Davis,
Alan Fram and Steve Manning contributed to this report.
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