China wage hikes boost costs but might help sales
June 8, 2010 Areas throughout China have raised local minimum wages and some
foreign employers have given out hefty pay hikes. That, combined
with an expected rise in China's currency against the dollar this
year, will squeeze exporters of clothing and other low-margin
goods, possibly forcing thousands to close or move to cheaper
countries such as Vietnam.
"It is very difficult for us," said Danny Lau, chairman of the
Hong Kong Small and Medium Enterprises Association. He said some
2,000 to 3,000 of an estimated 50,000 Hong Kong-owned factories in
southern China's Pearl River Delta, an export hub, might close this
year.
But putting more money in workers' pockets will help turn them
into consumers and accelerate China's growth as a major market for
imports from Boeing jetliners to Brazilian soybeans.
"This is good news. It's going to start driving consumer
spending," said Standard Chartered economist Jinny Yan.
Beijing and other Chinese cities have raised minimum wages by up
to 20 percent as part of efforts to narrow a yawning income gap
that communist leaders worry is fueling political tensions. It was
the first rise since the minimum wage was frozen in 2008 to help
exporters hold down prices amid the global crisis.
Communist authorities who normally bar independent labor
activity have allowed workers to demonstrate and sometimes carry
out brief strikes for higher wages.
On Sunday, Taiwanese-owned Foxconn Technology Group announced
the second in a series of raises that would increase pay by up to
65 percent at its factories in the southern city of Shenzhen. The
company employs 300,000 people there making iPhones and other goods
for Apple Inc., Sony Corp., Dell Inc., Nokia Corp. and
Hewlett-Packard Co.
The wage hikes fit Beijing's economic strategy, which calls for
encouraging China's own consumers to spend more in order to reduce
reliance on exports and investment to drive growth.
The ruling party also is trying to shift more money down the
economic ladder to defuse public anger that Chinese workers have
gotten too little out of a boom that has created dozens of
billionaires.
Wages as a share of China's gross domestic product have fallen
steadily since the 1980s, from 56.5 percent in 1983 to 36.7 percent
in 2005, according to figures from the umbrella group for legally
permitted unions, the All-China Federation of Trade Unions,
reported by the government newspaper Global Times.
Even at that level, rising incomes made China the biggest auto
market last year by vehicles sold and a leading market in
industries from air travel to fast food. Retail sales in April were
up 18.5 percent from a year earlier.
"Demand is picking up because people have more money in their
pockets," said Jing Ulrich, JP Morgan's chairwoman for China
equities. She said higher wages could boost demand for products as
varied as fast food and sporting goods.
Foreign companies' focus on China as a market was highlighted by
a survey released in April by the American Chamber of Commerce in
China. It found the top priority for 58 percent of its member
companies was producing in China for sale to local consumers. Only
14 percent said their priority was to produce for export.
The wage hikes are likely to hit employers hardest in China's
southeast. The area has thousands of factories, many owned by Hong
Kong or Taiwanese investors that compete in global markets. Many
have razor-thin profit margins and little power to pass on higher
costs to customers.
The region was battered in 2008 by the collapse in global
consumer spending. Thousands of factories closed and the government
said as many as 30 million people were thrown out of work.
Wei Senchuan, general manager of Suzhou Hong Sheng Printing Co.
in the eastern city of Suzhou, which makes housings for computers
bound for export, said the minimum wage rise will add 6 to 7
percent to his costs.
Asked whether he could pass that on to customers, Wei said,
"impossible."
Even after the latest increases, Chinese wages are still a
fraction of those in the United States or Europe. Foxconn says pay
for its employees in Shenzhen will be about 2,000 yuan ($293) a
month.
"We don't see an end to an era of cheap Chinese goods," said
Yan of Standard Chartered.
The minimum wage hikes should raise growth in domestic
consumption by about 0.2 percentage points this year, according to
Jun Ma, chief China economist for Deutsche Bank. He said that would
come at the cost of a 0.4 percentage point rise in inflation and a
0.6 percentage point decline in exports.
The wage hikes "will serve as an important impetus to speed up
the income distribution reform and economy upgrading," Ma said in
a report.
Taiwanese companies had invested an estimated $122 billion and
employed 14.4 million people on the mainland as of last year,
according to Hung Chia-ko, a researcher at Taiwan's National
Chengchi University.
Some are shifting operations to Southeast Asian nations such as
Vietnam and other low-wage economies. But many are too dependent on
China's networks of distributors and materials suppliers, say
economists and company managers. And even in such places as
Vietnam, with 80 million people, the labor pool seems small by
comparison.
"Vietnamese workers go on strike every day," said Andrew Yeh,
head of the Dongguan Business Association of Taiwan Investors in
Dongguan, a city near Hong Kong, and the boss of a company that
makes computer cables.
"And you have to be close to the market," Yeh said. "How do
you set up your base in Vietnam and export to China?"