It is the first mainstream poll to put the head-to-head race in a dead heat, and the cycle's first to not have Sherrill leading, either in the democratic primary or the general election.
"A tightly contested race in the Garden State," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. "Young voters, under 40, break for Sherrill by large margins, 58% to 24%. The race tightens to seven points among voters in their 40s, with Sherrill leading 47% to 40%, then Ciattarelli flips the script among voters over 50, leading Sherrill 52% to 36% among this group."
Kimball also noted the gender divide that is emerging among voters.
"Women break for Sherrill by ten points, 46% to 36%, while men break for Ciattarelli by 12 points, 51% to 39%. Notably, women are over twice as likely to be undecided at 15% compared to 6% of men," Kimball added.
Sherrill has a background as a Naval Academy graduate and Navy helicopter pilot. She was a federal prosecutor before being elected to Congress in 2018 in a longtime Republican-held district in northern New Jersey.
Ciattarelli, who is in his third bid for governor, has family roots in New Jersey, which he says go back a century. A certified public accountant, he owned a medical publishing company that he sold in 2017. He was a local and state elected leader before running for governor in 2017 and 2021.
In one of the race's major issues, 30% believe utility companies are responsible for the rising utility costs; and 22% blame Gov Murphy. 7% think the federal government is responsible, and 4% think the grid operator is responsible; 35% think all of these are responsible.
Regarding the property tax rate in New Jersey, 21% think Murphy is responsible for the rate, 15% think the state legislature is responsible for the rate, 10% town governments, 6% local school districts, and 46% think all of these groups are responsible.
The poll doesn't think much of President Donald Trump, who has a 41%-51% job approval rating, or Gov. Phil Murphy, whose approval rating is 35% to 44% disapproval.
"Both President Trump and Governor Murphy are underwater among Jersey voters. Sherrill is trying to tie Ciattarelli to Trump, at the national level, and Ciattarelli is trying to tie Sherrill to Murphy and the cost of living at the state level," Kimball said.
Trump commented on the poll on social media, showing his support for Ciattarelli:
"Wow!!! A just out poll has Jack Ciattarelli essentially beating close to incompetent Mike Sherrill in the race for Governor of New Jersey. Jack is tough on crime and cutting taxes, two things that people really demand today. He will be a GREAT Governor, and Sherrill wants Open Borders (again!), men playing in Women's Sports, Transgender for everyone, and all of the things that almost DESTROYED America. She is a big supporter of the perhaps future Communist Mayor of New York City! We need Jack in New Jersey!!! President DJ"
Long considered a reliably blue state in national elections, New Jersey has swung between Republicans and Democrats during its odd-year gubernatorial elections. Trump lost there by just 6 points last fall, a credit to his appeal among the state's large working-class population.
(The Associated Press contributed to this report.)