Oscars 2026: Montgomery County statistician uses 'Oscarmetrics' to predict winners

Friday, March 13, 2026
UPPER DUBLIN, Pa. (WPVI) -- As always, experts are weighing in with predictions as to who will take home Oscars statuettes on Sunday.

One who has an impressive success rate is Montgomery County, Pennsylvania native Ben Zauzmer, who grew up in Upper Dublin.

He's a mathematician and baseball statistician with a unique math model to try to determine the winners on Hollywood's biggest night.

Zauzmer calls it "Oscarmetics," and his success rate has reached up to 95%!

"Ultimately, it's based on this premise that the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior," said Zauzmer.



His formula uses winners from previous awards shows this season, critic scores, betting models, and other data.

Zauzmer says this year, there's a record-breaking battle between "One Battle After Another" and "Sinners."

"They're going to face off in 11 categories this year. That's the record. No other pair of movies has ever gone up one-on-one in 11 different categories," Zauzmer explained.

For Best Actor, he says the math favors "Sinners'" Michael B. Jordan, who plays twins in the film.

Zauzmer says, "There's only been one person ever to win Best Actor for dual roles. Michael B. Jordan could be the second!"



For Best Actress, the math likes Jessie Buckley for her role in "Hamnet," "One Battle After Another's" Sean Penn for Best Supporting Actor, and Amy Madigan from "Weapon" for Best Supporting Actress.

Zauzmer says Madigan is another potential record breaker.

"Her movie got one nomination for "Weapons", which was her herself as Best Supporting Actress, and yet she might actually win. It would be four decades in the making," he said.

And here's Zauzmer's take for the biggest award of the night.

"The math does see "One Battle" ahead of "Sinners," but "Sinners" is in a strong second place, and maybe has enough momentum to pull out ahead," he said.

Don't miss Hollywood's biggest night: The Oscars on ABC!

Our live Oscar pre-show, "On The Red Carpet at the Oscars," begins at 3:30 p.m. ET/12:30 p.m. PT and will feature live interviews with the nominees, red carpet fashion analysis and more!



Watch the 98th Academy Awards, hosted by Conan O'Brien, on March 15 at 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT on ABC and Hulu, followed by "The Bachelorette: Before the First Rose."

Check your local listings or stream on Hulu and OnTheRedCarpet.com.

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