To unlock the mystery of the upcoming winter, we explore atmospheric signals established now in the fall.
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Let's start by looking at recent trends. The pattern over the past few years is clear and consistent. Most months are running above average.
Over the past several decades, the winter season itself is warming faster than any other season. Five of the top 10 warmest winters in Philadelphia have occurred since the turn of the century.
And in fact, last winter was the 12th warmest on record.
La Nina has been in control the past two years. This winter makes it a rare "Triple Dip La Nina."
La Nina means cooler-than-normal ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator. This cooler water affects weather patterns in the U.S., especially during the months of December, January and February.
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A "Triple Dip" means this is the third year in a row that the U.S. will experience La Niña conditions.
So the key points for the upcoming winter are the continuing trend of above-average temperatures. And with a storm track favorited to our west, many events will be rain or snow transitioning to rain.
Watch the video in the player above for Cecily and Adam's 2022-2023 Winter Weather Outlook.