Adam Joseph's eclipse forecast breakdown

Adam Joseph Image
Thursday, August 17, 2017


We are five days out from the main event.

A Partial Solar Eclipse that has not been witnessed in nearly 40 years in our area and Mother Nature has a lot of pressure on her shoulders. I am here to give you my detailed breakdown of how the atmosphere is stacking up for the big day.

You need to look at the atmosphere in layers (weather doesn't just happen at one point in the 9 miles of troposphere). We need to look at it layer by layer.


I just did that for the time of the peak eclipse: 2:44 p.m. Monday when 80% of the moon will block the sun.

PHOTO 1 - The Surface


Colors would show precipitation, no colors is what you want in this picture. In fact, I see high pressure (do not laugh at my elementary drawing) just to our south east. This means a very warm surface and no chance of rain.

PHOTO 2 - 850mb or 5,000 Feet Above

5,000 feet up, Temps in Celsius

This is where the weather starts to happen and we are looking at temperatures. You want it to be warm at this layer to help prevent clouds and the atmosphere from turning unstable. We are warm with temps near +63 at that layer. If I saw greens or cooler colors, then I would be worried about the hot surface air rising into the colder 850 layer and clouding up the sky completely. We are great!

PHOTO 3 - 700mb or 10,000 Feet Above

10,000 feet up. Humidity

This is the moisture layer. We look at the relative humidity to see if it is moisture rich to help build lots of clouds or downpours and storms. You can clearly see the humidity is 15% with those beautiful brown colors. Green would indicate higher water content in the air.

PHOTO 4 - 500mb or 20,000 Feet Above

20,000 feet up, Energy

This is the energy layer. If you see bright colors it does not fare well for clear skies. This is the layer we talk about especially in the winter when storms develop off our coast and "energy" rolls in to bomb the storm out! As you can see, most of the country is quiet and not very active; in fact, very little over us to excite the atmosphere or ignite storms.

So in all, most of the country is faring well for the event. I don't see a massive storm anywhere in the country, but there will be areas of cloudy skies, but not for us. I am thinking parts of the Midwest where the eclipse will be in totality may be in trouble, but that is about it.

After all of that, and I thank you for letting me geek out, as of right now, I would say no chance of rain, mostly sunny skies with some cumulus clouds dotting the sky (which may block the sun from time to time, but not for long), and highs near 90!


MORE: Complete 2017 Eclipse Coverage


Send a breaking news alert
Report a correction or typo
Learn more about the 6abc apps