Trump leverages economic discontent, extends his appeal -- and breaks mold: ANALYSIS

Former President Donald Trump leveraged economic discontent, extended his appeal beyond his core support groups and overturned long-term political trends in the 2024 presidential election, driving his unique political style to a remarkable comeback.

While ABC News had not projected a winner by early Wednesday morning, Trump's performance broke the mold across a variety of measures.

Among them, Hispanic voters, long a solidly Democratic group, voted for Vice President Kamala Harris over Trump by just 53-45% -- the closest margin since exit polls began in 1976. That 8-point win for Harris compares with 33 points for President Joe Biden among Hispanic voters four years ago.

Trump's gain chiefly was among Hispanic men -- a win by 10 points, after losing them by 23 points in 2020. Given the country's increasingly diverse population, Republican competitiveness among Hispanic voters could represent a sea change in the nation's political landscape.

At the same time, diversity declined in this election: It was the first time since 1996 that racial and ethnic minorities did not increase their share of the electorate, even if by a scant point or two. In all, they went from just 13% of voters in 1992 (with the rest, 87%, white) to 33% in 2020 (with 67% white). In this election, white voters accounted for 71%, a 4-point increase; minority voters moved down to 29%.

The main gain among white people was those who don't have a four-year college degree, +4 points as a share of the electorate and a broadly pro-Trump group.

White people overall voted 55-43% for Trump. That compared with Harris wins of 53-45% among Hispanic people (an historically tight margin, as noted) 56-38% among Asian voters and 86-12% among Black voters, a typical result for Democrats.

Another break from the past was in terms of straight-ahead partisanship. Thirty-four percent of voters identified themselves as Republicans, 32% as Democrats and 34% as independents. However tight the margin, it was the first time in exit polls that Republicans outnumbered Democrats nationally.

There was a huge gap between young men (roughly evenly split, 49-47%, Harris-Trump) and young women (+27 points for Harris, 63-36%). Still, Harris' vote from young women was down 4 points from Biden's in 2020.

Harris won women by 54-44%; Trump won men by an identical margin. That 20-point gender gap almost exactly matches the average since 1996. Tellingly, though, Harris' support from women was 3 points lower than Biden's in 2020.

In another dramatic shift, Harris underperformed Biden by 19 points among first-time voters (even if a small group, 8% of the electorate). They went 54-45% for Trump over Harris, after backing Biden over Trump by 64-32%. Trump doubled his support in this group.

College-educated voters were about as good for Harris as they were for Biden - but Trump did 4 points better among non-college voters than he did four years ago. Non-college voters, notably, are more economically vulnerable: Fifty-three percent in that group said they'd gotten worse off financially under Biden's presidency. Just 33% of college-educated voters said the same.

One more departure in the 2024 election bears note: Even with her overall outcome, Harris won independent voters, 50-45%. Independents often -- but not always -- vote with the winner.

On issues, the most striking result by far was the share of people overall saying they've gotten worse off financially under the current administration, 45%. That was the highest in exit polls that have asked the question, even surpassing the 42% worse off in 2008, in the teeth of the Great Recession. It was up from 20% four years ago, a more than doubling of the worse-off population under the administration in which Harris is No 2.

Conversely, a mere 24% this year said they'd become better off under Biden, a question Trump asked repeatedly at his campaign rallies.

Biden took the heat, with just a 40% job approval rating, with 58% disapproving, the lowest approval for an incumbent president in exit polls since President George W. Bush's 27% as he left office in 2008.

But Harris took the heat, as well.

Brief state-by-state results from exit polls in the seven battleground states follow.

Arizona

Biden narrowly won in Arizona four years ago helped by gains among college-educated white voters and among a growing share of independents. This year Harris maintained Biden's advantage with college-educated white voters, winning them by 53-45%. But independents, 40% of voters, split 49-45%, Trump-Harris.

In another key result, Maricopa County voters divided 50-47%, Trump-Harris, compared with 50-48%, Biden-Trump, in 2020. Maricopa County is crucial, as it's home to 59% of the state's electorate.

Georgia

Harris was unable to replicate Biden's performance among independents that helped make him the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry Georgia since 1992.

Key to Trump's victory here, independents swung toward Trump by 11 points, 54-43%, compared with Biden's 9-point margin in 2020. Trump also won white men with college degrees by 30 points, 64-34%, more than doubling his 12-point lead among them 2020. And although he lost moderates to Harris by 18 points, that was far narrower than his 32-point loss against Biden in 2020.

Michigan

In 2020, Biden flipped Michigan back to the Democratic column by making gains from Clinton's 2016 showing among independents, suburbanites and those in union households.

In key shifts this year, under-30s divided 51-46% Trump-Harris, a sharp turn from Biden's 24-point advantage (61-37%) in this group in 2020. In partisan terms, the share identifying as Democrats fell 6 points to 32%, the lowest on record in exit polls since 1984.

Nevada

In a stronger-than-usual showing among Hispanic voters, Trump divided evenly with Harris in this group, 47-47%; Democrats had 21- to 54-point advantages among Hispanic voters in Nevada exit poll data since 2000.

Other factors kept the race up in the air. Independents divided evenly, 47-46%; as did white women, a group Trump won by 53-45% in 2020. And Harris won by 15 points in Washoe County, 56-41% -- the largest Democratic advantage in available exit poll data dating to 2004.

But Trump eroded usual Democratic margins in Las Vegas' Clark County, splitting the vote, 49-48%, Harris-Trump, the best showing for a GOP presidential candidate in available exit poll data since 2004.

North Carolina

Trump was aided in North Carolina by the broad 69% of voters who rated the national economy negatively - a group that supported him by 46 points over Harris, 72-26%. His economic message cut across racial lines. A third of voters were people of color, and 60% of them gave the nation's economy bad ratings; they went for Trump by 26 points, 61-35%.

Trump lost 4 points vs. 2020 among white voters, while Harris gained 5 points over Biden's margin. Still, that wasn't enough to mitigate slips in groups that brought Biden close in 2020. Voters under 30 went +1 for Trump this year vs. +17 for Biden in 2020, men went +17 for Trump vs. +9 for him in 2020 and Black voters went for Harris by +74 points this time, down from Biden's +85.

Pennsylvania

Exit poll results in Pennsylvania pointed to a growing educational divide, with Harris leading by 60-39% among voters with a college degree, the widest Democratic win in this group in exit polls since 1988. Conversely, Trump had a 57-41% lead among non-college voters, the largest Republican victory on record. The gender gap also sharpened since 2020, with women breaking for Harris by 55-43% while men went for Trump by 57-41%.

Harris made inroads among voters from union households, winning them by 54-45% after this group split 51-49% for Trump in 2020. But, as elsewhere, she lost ground among Hispanic voters, +15 points at the end of night, compared with Biden's 42-point lead in 2020; and among voters younger than 30, winning them by 9 points compared with Biden's 27 points.

Wisconsin

Harris lost considerable ground among Wisconsin voters younger than 30, essentially breaking even with Trump, 50-48%, compared with a 59-36% Biden win four years ago. While they comprised just 6% of the electorate, Black voters went for Harris by 78-21%, down from a much wider 92-8% for Biden in 2020. At the same time, Harris was boosted by an increase in the share of voters with college degrees, up 4 points from 2020 to 38%; she won them 57-41%, matching Biden's margin in 2020. The share of moderates also increased, up 6 points to 44%, with this group breaking 56-43% Harris-Trump.

ABC New's Christine Filer, Steven Sparks, Allison De Jong, Jared Sousa and Ishai Melamede contributed to this report.