College Football Playoff, bowl projections following Week 4

Week 4 did not produce any seismic upsets, but as always, there were plenty of eye-opening results that impacted the College Football Playoff picture and beyond.

Among the games that altered perceptions were Indiana's dismantling of Illinois, decisive wins by Texas Tech (at Utah) and Ole Miss (over Tulane), and road victories by Syracuse (at Clemson) and Michigan (at Nebraska).

As in last season's inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.

From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year's Six bowls, with this season's national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Miami's Hard Rock Stadium.

All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.

We're here for all of it.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we'll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.

Jump to a section:br/>Playoff picks| Quarterfinalsbr/>Semis, title game| Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games (at campus sites)

Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20

Times and networks TBD.

Bonagura: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 LSU

>Schlabach: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Oregon

Bonagura: No. 11 Texas Tech at No. 6 Miami

>Schlabach: No. 11 Indiana at No. 6 Penn State

Bonagura: No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Florida State

>Schlabach: No. 10 Texas A&M at No. 7 Florida State

Bonagura: No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Indiana

>Schlabach: No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 Oklahoma

First-round breakdown

Bonagura:Two teams worth highlighting this week are Indiana and Texas Tech, both of which had huge wins against conference teams that were in these projections a week ago (Illinois and Utah). These games weren't just wins, they were statements. Indiana beat Illinois by 53, and Tech beat Utah by 24.

For Texas Tech, the win should establish the Red Raiders as the favorite in the Big 12 -- a conference that will have a tough time getting two teams in the playoff. For Indiana, the road is more difficult -- but it's manageable. The only ranked teams left on its schedule are Oregon and Penn State, so if the Hoosiers hold serve in the games they're favored in and finish 10-2, that should be good enough to get in the playoff. Of course, this appears to be a team that can go toe-to-toe with anyone, so it's premature to write off any games as losses.

Schlabach:It was another wild Saturday, and my playoff bracket has three new teams after Illinois, Tulane and Utah were on the wrong side of blowouts.

Texas Tech spent a boatload of cash boosting its roster this past offseason, and it paid off in Saturday's 34-10 victory at Utah. The victory puts the Red Raiders and Iowa State in the driver's seat in the Big 12 race, and those teams won't play each other in the regular season. In fact, Texas Tech doesn't face another Big 12 opponent that is currently ranked in the AP poll the rest of the way.

Indiana's 63-10 rout of No. 9 Illinois put the rest of the Big 10 on notice. It was the Hoosiers' first victory over a top-10 opponent in five years and its most lopsided win over one in school history. The Hoosiers play at Oregon on Oct. 11 and at Penn State on Nov. 8, so there won't be any questions about their strength of schedule if they get back into the CFP for the second straight season.

USF, which beat Boise State and Florida earlier this season, returns to my 12-team bracket. The Bulls blasted FCS program South Carolina State 63-14, and they're my fifth conference champion after Tulane lost 45-10 at Ole Miss on Saturday. I also strongly considered Memphis, which knocked off Arkansas 32-31 at home.

CFP quarterfinals

Wednesday, Dec. 31

CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

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>Bonagura:No. 7 Florida State vs. No. 2 Oregon

>Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 LSU

Thursday, Jan. 1

CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl

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>Bonagura:No. 5 LSU vs. No. 4 Penn State

>Schlabach: No. 7 Florida State vs. No. 2 Miami

CFP quarterfinal at theRose Bowl Game presented by Prudential

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>Bonagura:No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Ohio State

>Schlabach: No. 9 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio State

CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl

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>Bonagura:No. 6 Miami vs. No. 3 Georgia

>Schlabach: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Georgia

Quarterfinals breakdown

Bonagura:The tastiest hypothetical quarterfinal matchup here is Georgia vs. Miami, which would feature Hurricanes quarterbackCarson Beckagainst his former team. The downside is that storyline would be so dominant everyone would quickly get tired of hearing about it.

Ohio State vs. Oklahoma looks good too, but then again that's the whole point of the playoff. These are all enticing games.

Schlabach:These potential matchups would produce some intriguing storylines, with Florida State and Miami potentially meeting for a second (or third?) time. The Hurricanes have already taken down USF and Florida, and they'll play the Seminoles on the road Oct. 4. Those teams could potentially meet again in the ACC championship game.

Ohio State and Texas Tech have much in common in terms of spending big bucks in the transfer portal, and Oregon and LSU would be a matchup of two of the best quarterbacks in the FBS:Garrett Nussmeier and Dante Moore.

Georgia and Penn State have played just once in the past 43 years. The Bulldogs defeated the Nittany Lions 24-17 in the 2015 TaxSlayer Bowl.

CFP semifinals, national championship game

Thursday, Jan. 8

CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

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>Bonagura:No. 5 LSU vs. No. 1 Ohio State

>Schlabach: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Miami

Friday, Jan. 9

CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

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>Bonagura:No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Oregon

>Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Monday, Jan. 19

CFP National Championship

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>Bonagura:No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State

>Schlabach: No. 2 Miami vs. No. 1 Ohio State

National championship breakdown

Bonagura:Ohio State is still the favorite on paper, but it has an interesting test Saturday against Washington at Seattle, which can be a tough place to play. And Husky Stadium will surely be electric for this one. The more important game this week is Oregon at Penn State, where the winner will be well on its way to the Big Ten title game.

Schlabach:I had all but one of my top four seeds advancing to the semifinals. A Georgia-Miami matchup in the Fiesta Bowl would be good drama, as Kyle noted in his quarterfinals breakdown.

Oregon and Ohio State won't play each other in the regular season, but they could certainly meet in the Big Ten championship game. They played twice last season, with the Ducks winning 32-31 at home during the regular season and the Buckeyes flipping the script with a 41-21 victory in a CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl.

Complete bowl season schedule

Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl

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>Bonagura:Alabama State vs. South Carolina State

>Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

LA Bowl

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>Bonagura:Cal vs. UNLV

>Schlabach: Washington vs. UNLV

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl

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>Bonagura:South Alabama vs. Miami (Ohio)

>Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Georgia Southern

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl

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>Bonagura:Buffalo vs. Cincinnati

>Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Troy

68 Ventures Bowl

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>Bonagura: Southern Miss vs. Middle Tennessee

>Schlabach: Old Dominion vs. Central Michigan

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl

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>Bonagura:East Carolina vs. Marshall

>Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl

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>Bonagura:Mississippi State vs. NC State

>Schlabach: South Carolina vs. Virginia

Monday, Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

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>Bonagura:Ohio vs. Fresno State

>Schlabach: Ohio vs. Utah State

Tuesday, Dec. 23

Boca Raton Bowl

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>Bonagura:UConn vs. Northern Illinois

>Schlabach: Boise State vs. Toledo

New Orleans Bowl

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>Bonagura: James Madison vs. Jacksonville State

>Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech

Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl

>Ford Center at The Star (

>Bonagura:North Texas vs. Texas State

>Schlabach: North Texas vs. New Mexico State

Wednesday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl

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>Bonagura:Boise State vs. Arizona

>Schlabach: Hawai'i vs. Tulane

Friday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl

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>Bonagura:Rutgers vs. Toledo

>Schlabach: Rutgers vs. Buffalo

Rate Bowl

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>Bonagura: Houston vs. Maryland

>Schlabach: Baylor vs. Michigan State

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl

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>Bonagura: Army vs. Appalachian State

>Schlabach: UCF vs. San Diego State

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl

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>Bonagura: Pitt vs. Memphis

>Schlabach: SMU vs. Navy

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl

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>Bonagura: Duke vs. Iowa

>Schlabach: Clemson vs. Maryland

Wasabi Fenway Bowl

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>Bonagura: Clemson vs. Tulane

>Schlabach: NC State vs. Memphis

Pop-Tarts Bowl

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>Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. TCU

>Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Utah

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl

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>Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. New Mexico

>Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl

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>Bonagura: Utah State vs. Western Kentucky

>Schlabach: Wyoming vs. Texas State

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

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>Bonagura: Louisville vs. Alabama

>Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Alabama

Kinder's Texas Bowl

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>Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Texas A&M

>Schlabach: TCU vs. Ole Miss

Monday, Dec. 29

JLab Birmingham Bowl

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>Bonagura: South Carolina vs. Old Dominion

>Schlabach: Mississippi State vs. Pittsburgh

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl

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>Bonagura: Baylor vs. Louisiana Tech

>Schlabach: Houston vs. Jacksonville State

Music City Bowl

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>Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Auburn

>Schlabach: Illinois vs. Auburn

Valero Alamo Bowl

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>Bonagura: BYU vs. USC

>Schlabach: Iowa State vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl

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>Bonagura: Illinois vs. Tennessee

>Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

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>Bonagura: SMU vs. Arizona State

>Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Arizona

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl

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>Bonagura: Michigan vs. Ole Miss

>Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl

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>Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah

>Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Cal

Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

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>Bonagura: Kansas vs. Navy

>Schlabach: Kansas vs. Rice

AutoZone Liberty Bowl

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>Bonagura:UCF vs. Missouri

>Schlabach: BYU vs. Missouri

Duke's Mayo Bowl

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>Bonagura:Syracuse vs. Vanderbilt

>Schlabach: Duke vs. Vanderbilt

Holiday Bowl

>Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)

>8 p.m., Fox

>Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Washington

>Schlabach: Louisville vs. Arizona State

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