MLB 2026: August winners, losers -- and what to watch in September

The dog days of August are ending, meaning baseball is entering the most exciting part of its regular season: the stretch run.

A number of teams have set themselves up well for this final stretch with dominant August performances: the Boston Red Sox continued to build on a 21-4 July to solidify their hopes to play in October, the Philadelphia Phillies closed the gap in the division and the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres clawed their way back into the wild-card race. We also saw some historic performances that have heated up awards races entering the final month.

But the opposite is also true. Poor performances and individual slumps so late in the season changed teams' fortunes, or made the prospect of playing postseason baseball less realistic. With the sport entering the stretch run, what we saw over the past four weeks has helped shape the storylines and matchups to watch as the calendar flips to September.

We asked ESPN MLB experts Jorge Castillo, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Buster Olney, Jeff Passan, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield to break down the best and worst of August, and what they're looking forward to (and keeping an eye on) in the month ahead as the 2026 regular season ends and the playoffs begin.

Who (or what) is your biggest winner of August?

Passan: Considering Fernando Tatis Jr. didn't hit his first home run this season until May 29, his August power surge was a pleasant surprise that propelled the Padres back into contention. The month began with San Diego in the middle of a 16-4 stretch, and though the team has treaded water since, Tatis' renaissance is in full bloom. He slugged nine home runs in August and did so with a sub-20% strikeout rate and a 26.3% chase rate, two indicators of a hitter in full control. The Padres, meanwhile, face a friendly September schedule that ends with what could be a series against the Diamondbacks for the final National League wild-card spot.

Rogers: The Phillies closed the gap in the NL East and helped to solidify themselves in the wild-card race. It wasn't that long ago that the Atlanta Braves were looking like the runaway winner for the division, while Arizona and San Diego were pushing Philadelphia for a playoff berth. But a nine-game win streak, which included some dramatic wins, helped the Phillies' cause. And they did it all without a very good month from ace Zack Wheeler. Philly is back on track.

Castillo: The NL MVP race. It wasn't much of one the past two seasons once Shohei Ohtani switched leagues and added two plaques to his mantle. Everyone else seemed to be fighting for runner-up. But it's up for grabs in 2026 after Pete Crow-Armstrong belted 14 home runs with a 1.098 OPS in 27 games in August while supplying his typical top-flight defense in center field for theChicago Cubs. PCA padded his case Saturday with his first career three-homer game, whereas Ohtani's return to the mound was postponed. It's a welcomed -- and unexpected -- storyline going into the final month.

Who (or what) is your biggest loser of August?

Olney: The Los Angeles Dodgers' offense. Manager Dave Roberts talked about this after his team was shut down again Saturday, about how it has been a struggle for a while and a lot of the numbers are ugly. Going into Sunday's games, the Dodgers were tied for 23rd in the majors in runs scored and tied for 18th in home runs. The Cubs have nearly twice as many homers as the Dodgers, who are struggling for production in a lot of spots in their lineup.

As the Dodgers and Ohtani discuss his effort to get back on the mound, this has to be part of the discussion: They don't necessarily need him to pitch, given all of their rotation depth, but they desperately need him to be at his best at the plate, in light of all of their lineup issues.

Gonzalez: When August began, the Pittsburgh Pirates were 2 games out of a playoff spot despite riding a four-game losing streak. The front office responded by aggressively supplementing a needy bullpen, landing Luke Weaver, Camilo Doval, Kirby Yates and Lake Bachar. But the losing continued. They dropped eight of their first 11 games in August, falling to six games out -- a deficit they've maintained despite winning each of their last two games.Paul Skenes is coming off an encouraging start in San Diego, and Konnor Griffin is on his way back from injury, but at this point, it seems none of that matters. The Pirates' hopes of playing in the postseason for the first time in 11 years have all but vanished.

Schoenfield:Everyone has been waiting all season for the Seattle Mariners to make a run and take control of the incredibly weak American League West. It certainly didn't happen in August, which will go down as one of the most brutal months in Mariners history. They went 11-15 after going 9-15 in July, but it was more the lopsided results of some of the losses that were so shameful: 22-0, 19-2, 11-0, 8-0, 7-0. They ended the month scoring just four runs in a three-game sweep to the Blue Jays to drop nine games under .500 and five games behind an injury-ravaged Houston Astros team.

The Mariners have an easy schedule in September, but this is a team that can't score runs, has lost its focus and seems to be playing out the string. A run last September -- when the Mariners won 16 of 17 on their way to the ALCS -- isn't likely to happen again.

What is your most astounding stat from the past month?

Doolittle: The Chicago White Sox's rotation has a minus-0.3 fWAR for August entering Monday even though the team has maintained a healthy advantage atop the American League Central. The rotation ERA was near six, and the White Sox got by far fewer innings from their starters than any other team during the month. This is all a compliment to their bullpen and the ability of manager Will Venable and his staff to juggle his best pitchers in that unit, as well as deciding when and how to deploy openers.

While the White Sox have gone 14-13 in August, the bullpen has won 10 of those games and saved nine of them. Through it all, Venable has maintained a strategy of getting through the day at hand, then sorting through the fallout afterward. It has kept the White Sox's Cinderella ride rolling. As we move into September, the challenge becomes figuring out how to get more out of the rotation, or else that heavily taxed bullpen might begin to fray.

Schoenfield:The New York Yankees thought they had their shortstop problem solved when they called up top prospect George Lombard Jr. to replace the struggling Anthony Volpe -- and Lombard not only hit well immediately after his call-up but made several dazzling plays in the field. His defensive metrics after 10 games in the majors were off the charts.

Then, he made an error in six consecutive games, most of those on routine grounders, and suddenly, the Yankees had a shortstop problem again. He was the first Yankees player with an error in six straight games since Chick Fewster in ... 1921, when players wore gloves the size of an oven mitt. Once the playoffs start, outs become more precious. The Yankees can't have their shortstop giving them away.

Passan: You can't just stop striking out, right? That ... doesn't happen. Except it did in August, when the Phillies posted a 16.1% K rate, the second best in the sport. In each of the previous two months, the Phillies ranked 27th -- at 25.3% in June and 25.2% in July. It's easy to say: "Uh ... Luis Arraez?" And, yes, his acquisition in a deadline deal with San Francisco certainly helped, with just three punchouts in 104 plate appearances for Philly. Subtract Arraez and the team rate is still just over 17%. So what changed? The Phillies are swinging less. They're chasing less. They're whiffing less. And when Bryce Harper's monthlong heater is complemented by Justin Crawford, Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm and Arraez punching out at a combined 8.3% of the time in 397 plate appearances, it is bound to lead to wins.

What is one thing you are watching in September?

Rogers: The NL MVP race is juicy. If PCA keeps doing PCA-type things and Ohtani eventually returns to the mound -- even in a limited capacity -- where will voters land? It felt like Crow-Armstrong edged ahead in August, but a few good outings combined with a few homers from Ohtani could return the award to the four-time winner. PCA has done all he can so far, but if Ohtani acts like Babe Ruth again, we might be calling him a five-time MVP winner soon.

Castillo: The Yankees' World Series chances could come down to whether Aaron Judge can come close to regaining his previous form when he returns from his fractured rib. The three-time AL MVP has not played since May 31 and is on track for reinstatement by mid-September during the heat of a tight division race with significant ramifications. Winning the AL East means avoiding a three-game wild-card series against either the Tampa Bay Rays or Red Sox and earning home-field advantage until the World Series as clear AL favorites. Losing the division and falling to the second wild-card spot means playing that wild-card series on the road against one of those teams, creating a much rockier path to baseball's biggest stage. Having Judge healthy and rolling could change the landscape.

Olney: The race for the top two seeds in the NL is compelling, and perhaps difference-making. The Milwaukee Brewers, Dodgers and Braves are comfortably ahead in their respective divisions, but the teams with the two best records in that trio will get first-round byes. Meanwhile, the No. 3 seed will face the daunting task of playing any of the dangerous NL wild-card teams: the Padres, with their great bullpen; the Diamondbacks, who have been surging in recent weeks despite the Ketel Marte situation; or the Phillies, who would likely line up Cristopher Sanchez, Wheeler and Jesus Luzardo in a three-game wild-card series.

The Dodgers look older and more vulnerable than in recent memory, so playing an extra playoff round could be a significant impediment in their efforts to go back-to-back-to-back.

Passan: Yordan Alvarez's hunt for the Triple Crown looked reasonably secure heading into August. Then, he more or less disappeared in two of the categories, and suddenly, Alvarez is one Junior Caminero home run from losing his grip on one of the game's rarest achievements. While Caminero was whacking seven home runs and driving in 20, Alvarez had just two home runs and 11 RBIs in August, entirely losing his five-homer advantage and dwindling his lead in RBIs to just two. In the meantime, the biggest current batting-average threat to Alvarez is Caminero's teammate Chandler Simpson, who hit nearly .400 in August while Alvarez was under .300. As it stands, Alvarez would win the Triple Crown, so all is not lost. He just needs a finish worthy of the honor.

Gonzalez: The Mariners have been the sport's most disappointing team -- deep, bursting with talent and relatively healthy -- yet stuck in a malaise that has spanned five months. And yet, there's an opening. The Mariners entered Monday five games out of first place in the AL West and five games out of a wild-card spot, but their schedule will soon soften significantly. Of their final 22 games, 17 are against the lowly Athletics, Los Angeles Angels and Colorado Rockies. The other five will be against the Texas Rangers and Astros, the two teams the Mariners are still chasing in their division. In other words, everything is in front of them.

Doolittle: The AL's top three teams all residing in the AL East raises the stakes in the race for the No. 2 seed. While the Rays, Yankees and Red Sox are all slugging it out on the 4-5-1 side of the AL bracket for a berth in the ALCS, you can argue that no team will have a better path than that second seed. Not only would that team have the luxury of home-field advantage in the division series with a rested bullpen and a chance to reset its rotation from the end of the regular season, if it parlays those advantages into the other ALCS berth, it will likely have expended fewer pitchers to get there than its opponent.

If the Yankees or Red Sox knock off presumed AL East winner Tampa Bay, that No. 2 seed would also land home-field edge in the ALCS. None of this would make that team a pennant favorite, but it would shorten the odds. The race for No. 2, at the moment, is the White Sox's to lose, as my simulations show them with a 79% chance of landing in that slot.

Schoenfield:Can the Phillies catch the Braves? The Phillies' offense finally picked up in August, on their way to a 20-7 month and an impressive plus-47 run differential. Atlanta has held its ground, including last week's sweep of the Dodgers, but the two teams have seven games remaining, starting this weekend in Philadelphia. The Phillies will probably need to win at least five of the seven to have a shot of running down the Braves.

What one series should fans circle as a must-watch for the month ahead -- and why?

Gonzalez: The D-backs and Padres are still separated by only half a game for the final NL wild-card spot. It has been similarly close for much of the year, so it's only fitting that their regular seasons will end with a final weekend series against each other at Petco Park in San Diego. The D-backs and Padres have split their 10 games against each other this season. At this rate, No. 13 could be the tiebreaker -- and should decide the No. 6 seed in the NL.

Castillo: The Phillies used August to move within striking distance of Atlanta for first place in the NL East, and they'll have their chance in the coming month to surpass them. The clubs will play seven games across two series in September, beginning with four in Philadelphia from Sept. 4 to Sept. 7. The Braves already lead the season series 5-1. Two wins and they'll clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker, which could be the difference in the end.

Rogers: The Yankees and Rays play a four-game set during three days from Sept. 22 to Sept. 24. It could determine the AL East winner, which is extra important because that team will get a bye. The loser could end up with the second-best record in the AL but have to play in the wild-card round. The Yankees hope to be fully healthy by the end of the regular season, and if Judge and Max Fried are playing, they might finally overtake Tampa Bay.