Winners and losers of the Leo Carlsson offer sheet saga

The Anaheim Ducks have matched the offer sheet tendered to 21-year-old star center Leo Carlsson by the Philadelphia Flyers, which runs five years and carries an $18 million average annual value against the salary cap.

That contract temporarily makes Carlsson the highest paid player in the NHL against the cap.

The fallout from this dramatic move by the Flyers impacts several players and teams. Here's a look at the winners and losers from the Leo Carlsson offer sheet saga.

WINNER: Daniel Briere

Hopefully, other managers took notice of Briere's approval ratings during this offer sheet chaos. Even those who might not believe Carlsson was worth that contract appreciated the swing for the fences by the Flyers general manager.

What are four first-rounders to the Flyers when exchanged for a 21-year-old No. 1 center? Briere believes his team, which made the playoffs and won a round, is trending in the right direction. He has a coach whose system likely prevents the Flyers from truly bottoming out even if they miss the playoffs. Outside of draft lottery luck, none of these picks are likely to result in a player the caliber -- or with the potential -- of Leo Carlsson.

So it was a smart gamble by Briere and one that makes the Flyers' front office look aggressive and innovative. It signals to the fan base how much confidence they have in this wave of players, including 19-year-old Porter Martone. It's a big public relations win, even if they didn't land Carlsson. And they still have four first-rounders to hunt down help in the middle.

To those worried about the backlash Briere might face for burning a bridge with Anaheim or breaking the gentlemen's agreement on offer sheets: When have you ever known a Philadelphia Flyer to worry about such things? (Fun fact: No Flyers player has ever won the Lady Byng Trophy.)

LOSER: Pat Verbeek

Whether or not you believe this is a "fireable offense" as one NHL executive told ESPN, the bottom line is that Verbeek is absolutely at fault for allowing the Flyers to offer sheet his top center. The Ducks must now suffer the fallout.

The Anaheim general manager was doing what he's done with almost every young core restricted free agent save for Jackson LaCombe: Attempt to grind them down to the number he believes they deserve at this stage of their careers, and win the war of attrition in talks. That's why Jamie Drysdale, Mason McTavish and Trevor Zegras all missed training camp time. All three are now former Ducks.

That trio also didn't have a single dollar in their contracts paid out in signing bonuses, which is now coin of the realm for these contracts to young franchise players. The Flyers helped enchant Carlsson with $83.5 million of his $90 million paid out in buyout-proof signing bonuses. Verbeek didn't exactly signal a change in policy about that going forward when he spoke to the media on Thursday, but his hand may be forced.

Anaheim had an exclusive negotiating window with Carlsson for several months. During a player-on-player interview with Elias Pettersson on Daily Faceoff last summer, Carlsson said "I'd take that, for sure" when asked about an eight-year deal with a $9.5 million annual cap hit. That's nearly half of what his new contract is going to pay annually!

On Thursday, Verbeek said he made an offer to Carlsson before last season. He said they had talks during the season, which directly contradicts what he said on Victory+ in January: That the team "tabled" its talks with Carlsson and other RFAs because "we want their focus to be on the playoffs."

Verbeek said on Thursday that at one point during the offseason he realized he was "getting slow walked" to July 1, and warned ownership that an offer sheet was likely coming for Carlsson. That's another reason this offer sheet debacle is on Verbeek: He failed to understand the shifting landscape of the NHL due to the increasing salary cap and its various ripples.

"I think the increased cap space has led to different circumstances. We're going to have to do business in a different manner, going forward," he said on Thursday.

A little late on that.

PuckPedia has the Ducks with just over $9 million in cap space. That's not enough to get RFA Cutter Gauthier signed, besides the fact that Anaheim also must tinker with a defensive corps that suffered a talent drain this offseason. Hard decisions will have to be made, all because Verbeek couldn't avoid an avoidable situation.

WINNER: Restricted free agents -- and their agents

All those years of offer sheet hype finally led to a massive, league-shaking one being tendered to a young star. The conditions are finally right for the Age of Offer Sheets.

The salary cap is going up exceptionally each season. Because of that, the unrestricted free agent pool has been drained, with teams signing their own players or trading them away years before they can hit the UFA market, to teams that then sign them to long-term deals.

Teams are having to be more creative in reshaping or improving their roster. This new generation of NHL executives doesn't seem shy about tendering offer sheets or using their leverage to force deals. This new generation of players doesn't seem shy about signing them, either.

The result is huge contracts for players that might have otherwise been squeezed by their teams, and a new pressure point for RFAs to use in negotiations. Ten years ago, the threat of an offer sheet was minimal at best and a bluff at worst. That's no longer the case.

All that said, offer sheets are 0-for-2 this offseason, with the New Jersey Devils failing to get center Barrett Hayton from the Utah Mammoth, and the Flyers being unable to shake Carlsson loose from the Ducks. That ended a three-offer-sheet winning streak -- Jesperi Kotkaniemi to Carolina in 2021, Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway to the St. Louis Blues in 2024.

But it's a long offseason and there are still players worth monitoring for potential offer sheets. Let the chaos continue!

LOSER: Cutter Gauthier

As mentioned earlier, the Ducks have less than $10 million in cap space open to sign Gauthier, the 22-year-old who scored 41 goals for them last season.

"The intention is to get Cutter signed. Wherever Cutter comes in at, we're going to have some work to do to fit everyone in," Verbeek said Thursday. "I have two and a half months to figure that out."

Gauthier is in a pickle. He's not eligible for an offer sheet because he played only one game in his first NHL season, needing 10 games for that to count towards his NHL service. He just watched Carlsson land a contract that the Ducks are never going to give him, because it's an offer sheet multiplier -- Verbeek literally said "it was forced on us."

Gauthier knows that every dollar added to his salary cap number is a dollar they need to find somewhere else on the roster, meaning some teammates will have to relocate their lives and families somewhere else.

It'll be interesting to see what Gauthier does here. He's already established that he's willing to fight for what he wants for himself and his career -- that's why he's a Duck and not a Flyer. Does he take one for the team or seek to break the bank? Carlsson secured the bag without a care about the cap implications. Gauthier may not have that luxury.

WINNER: Connor Bedard

The Chicago Blackhawks have been working with their restricted free agent franchise center on his next contract. Wherever it was trending, one assumes that the Leo Carlsson's $18 million AAV has made them erase the chalkboard and rewrite the equation.

AFP Analytics projected that Bedard would earn around $12.4 million annually, or roughly 11.89% of the salary cap on an eight-year deal. Carlsson's contract is worth 17.31% of the salary cap. Bedard has 203 points in 219 career games, while Carlsson has 141 points in 201 career games, playing with better overall talent around him than Bedard has had. The Ducks were a playoff team that won a round last postseason. Bedard has only watched the playoffs on television thus far, assuming he can stomach the F.O.M.O.

GM Kyle Davidson will likely argue that Carlsson's contract was inflated by the offer sheet process. That might not be the most compelling argument to make with someone who is also eligible to sign an offer sheet. Wonder what Bedard's favorite "Rocky" movie is ...

LOSER: Leo Carlsson

This might seem like a weird flex for someone who's going to make $90 million over the next five years. The Flyers anted up that absurd amount to try and shake him loose, but now it's next to his name on the salary cap sites.

While there's no questioning Carlsson's talent and potential -- which have him positioned to become of the league's most dominant centers -- he's now making $18 million against the cap annually, having never scored 30 goals, played 80 games or exceeded 67 points. It's naïve to believe fans and media won't measure his output relative to his elephantine contract.

On top of all of that: If the Ducks have to take a step back because of any salary cap decisions linked to having $18 million added to their payroll for the next five years, it's possible Verbeek gets that blame for leaving his flank open to an offer sheet. Or it falls on the guy who signed it.

Finally, let's face it: Carlsson isn't signing an offer sheet of that enormity and structure if there isn't a part of him that wishes the Ducks wouldn't match. Yes, he told the media on Thursday that "I always, always wanted to be a Duck" and hoped they'd match. But obviously he was prepared for life as a Flyer if they hadn't.

In the end, Carlsson signed the offer sheet. He'll own some of this fallout. But he also has the chance, over the next five seasons, to prove he was worth the trouble.br/]