First bets: Early picks for NFL Week 16

ByESPN

Monday, December 16, 2024 7:24PM

With just three weeks left in the NFL regular season, teams are beginning to separate themselves in the standings and playoff races. The AFC postseason picture appears to be clear with the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans clinching playoff spots. In the NFC, the Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles have each secured their spots in the postseason. The uncertainty around the rest of the potential playoff teams sets the stage for a thrilling Week 16 slate with games Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

The week kicks off with a key AFC West matchup between the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers on "Thursday Night Football." Two Saturday games take center stage, as the Kansas City Chiefs, possibly without Patrick Mahomes (ankle), take on C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans. The late-night game Saturday pits the Pittsburgh Steelers against the Baltimore Ravens in a battle for AFC North supremacy.

Sunday's slate features the Eagles, winners of 10 straight, facing the Washington Commanders, the Vikings taking on the Seattle Seahawks and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers meeting the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. The final game of Week 16 has the New Orleans Saints trekking to Lambeau Field to take on the red-hot Green Bay Packers.

Our team takes an early look at the odds to find value before lines move later in the week.

Early bets for NFL Week 16

Joe Fortenbaugh:Pittsburgh Steelers (+6.5) vs.Baltimore Ravens

Last week:Eagles-Steelers under 43.5 points. Line closed at 43.5. Eagles won 27-13.

The look-ahead line for this matchup was Baltimore -5, so we're getting an extra 1.5 points thanks to Pittsburgh's loss in Philadelphia on Sunday. The key here, as always, is to back the dog in the John Harbaugh-Mike Tomlin rivalry, which has gone an astounding 24-6-3 against the spread (80%). Further, when the underdog in this rivalry is catching more than a field goal, that trend comes in at 13-1 ATS (92.8%). Mike Tomlin knows how to game-plan for Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense, as evidenced by the fact that the Ravens are averaging just 13.8 points per game over their past eight showdowns with the Steelers.

Tyler Fulghum's first bet:Steelers-Ravens UNDER 46.5

Here's another scenario where Tomlin is a large road underdog. Although the Steelers didn't cover in Philadelphia, the game stayed under the total of 43.5. Tomlin hopes to have WR George Pickens back to attack this vulnerable Ravens secondary, and if that's the case, I believe the Steelers can keep this game close. It's the second meeting between the division rivals this season, which is another scenario that trends toward an under. The Steelers won the first meeting 18-16 with nothing but Chris Boswell field goals. This Week 16 meeting will take place Saturday, meaning short rest for both teams.

Seth Walder: New York Giants (+10.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Last week:Steelers (+5) at Eagles. Line closed at Steelers (+5.5). Eagles won 27-13.

I want to stress that I am as down on the Giants as anyone. I have been very critical of Tommy DeVito and believe it has been apparent for years that Tim Boyle has no place on even an NFL practice squad. But getting double digits from the Falcons? I'll take literally any NFL team in that scenario. Because as I write this ahead of Atlanta's Week 15 "Monday Night Football" game, there's reason to be pretty skeptical of this team: Since Week 10,Kirk Cousins ranks 27th out of 32 quarterbacks in QBR. That's one spot behind Drew Lock, by the way. Give me the points and hope the Giants just run the ball.

Andre Snellings and Ben Solak: Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) over Washington Commanders

Snellings' pick last week:Cleveland Browns +6.5 over Kansas City Chiefs. Line closed at Chiefs -3.5. Chiefs won 21-7.

Snellings: The Commanders were one of the stories of the first half of the season, winning seven of their first nine games with an average scoring margin of +8.2 points to establish themselves as a playoff contender. But they have come back to earth in the second half of the season, losing three of their past five with an average margin of +1.4 PPG. The Eagles, on the other hand, are the hottest team in the NFL, winners of 10 straight games by an average of 13.2 points. One of those 10 wins was an eight-point victory over the Commanders last month. The Eagles are embroiled in a battle with the Lions for the top seed in the NFC, so will need to continue to press their hot play in their rematch with the Commanders.

Solak's pick last week:Carolina Panthers (-1.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys. Line closed at Panthers -2.5. Cowboys won 30-14.

Solak:The last impressive Commanders game was... when? Washington nearly choked a lead to the Spencer Rattler-led Saints this past Sunday. Before that, the Commanders dumped 42 points on a Titans team that is a comedy of errors, sure -- but that was to stop a three-game skid that included a loss to these Eagles in Philadelphia.

Jayden Daniels might be healthier in this game than he was in the first Eagles contest, but the Vic Fangio-led Eagles defense continues to be the league's best, and Fangio has been particularly successful against mobile quarterbacks in his career. Though the health of Daniels and debut of Marshon Lattimore might seem like scale-tipping factors in a close divisional game, the Eagles are a clear cut above the Commanders in power rating. Philadelphia should be able to run all over Washington and win this comfortably.

Early bet for College Football Playoff

Pamela Maldonado:Notre Dame(+150) to reach the CFP semifinal

Last week: Clemson(+11) vs. Texas. Line currently at Clemson (+11.5).

The Fighting Irish have turned an early-season hiccup into pure momentum, emerging as one of the hottest teams in college football. With a stout defense and senior quarterback Riley Leonard leading the offense, Notre Dame has the nation's best average margin of victory at an impressive 26.3 points. The expanded 12-team playoff format couldn't suit Notre Dame better. Slotted to host in the first round, the Irish are 7.5-point favorites against Indiana and have been dominant at home all season. A potential quarterfinal clash against Georgia looms, but the Bulldogs' reliance on a backup quarterback makes this matchup far more manageable. Notre Dame's balanced attack, superior turnover margin and postseason experience gives it every reason to believe it can overcome the challenge.

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