How a Pennsylvania Supreme Court election could influence the 2028 presidential race

A normally low-key Pennsylvania Supreme Court race to determine whether three Democratic justices will remain on the bench for another 10-year term is drawing attention from across the political spectrum amid speculation about the role the court could play in the swing state leading up to the 2028 presidential election.

In a new video advertisement, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro implores voters to "vote yes" on retaining Justices Christine Donahue, Kevin Dougherty and David Wecht.

RELATED: Pa. Governor Josh Shapiro gets involved with Supreme Court race in bid to keep current majority

"Here in Pennsylvania, the threats to our freedoms are very real. That's why we need to keep our state Supreme Court standing up for what's right," he said in the video, adding that the justices will "protect a woman's access to abortion and birth control and stand up for all our freedoms."

The justices are not facing off against any opponents. Instead, voters will simply respond "yes" or "no" to whether they wish for the three incumbents to remain on the state's highest court.

In these so-called retention races, voters traditionally respond affirmatively. In fact, in Pennsylvania, only one justice has failed a statewide retention vote -- in 2005.

Typically, these off-year races fly under the radar. But this particular race may have national implications as it could potentially influence the 2028 presidential election -- especially with the state's high court expected to preside over cases like election litigation and redistricting.

Donohue, Dougherty and Wecht were each elected in 2015, bringing the Pennsylvania Supreme Court to a 5-2 Democratic majority. If voters do not retain them next month, the court would fall to an even 2-2 split.

Though Pennsylvania's Democratic governor would then nominate an interim justice, the nominee would have to be approved by two-thirds of the Republican-controlled state Senate.

A partisan election would then be held in 2027 -- this could allow Republicans to potentially flip the high court, teeing them up nicely for the 2028 presidential race.

Not only is Pennsylvania a critical swing state, it has also found itself at the center of high-stakes election litigation. In 2020, for example, the state's high court extended the mail-in ballot deadline, allowing thousands more ballots to be counted in that year's presidential race.

This year's judicial election also comes as redistricting efforts continue to sweep the nation. In 2018, the Pennsylvania court struck down congressional maps drawn by Republican lawmakers, a win for Democrats ahead of that year's midterm elections.

Emphasizing the importance of this election, Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin wrote in a statement that "the stakes couldn't be higher in these judicial retention races, especially in the run-up to winning back the White House in 2028."

Republicans are also talking up the race's importance, launching an informational website titled Swamp the Vote USA paid for by the Republican National Committee, which tells voters that "President Trump and Republicans need YOU to make a plan to vote NO on retaining Pennsylvania's radical left Supreme Court justices." 

Earlier this year, the Wisconsin Supreme Court election broke the record for the most expensive state supreme court race with over $100 million in spending. That race saw Elon Musk famously hand out multiple $1 million checks to attendees of a town hall to support a conservative candidate who later lost.

But while spending on the Pennsylvania race is expected to be just a fraction of what was spent in Wisconsin -- the Brennan Center for Justice estimating it at just over $5 million -- some are arguing the stakes are even higher.

"Pennsylvania's Supreme Court has long played an outsized role in shaping our elections, especially on mail ballots and election law," the Pennsylvania Republican Party posted Monday on X, arguing that "unchecked judicial overreach" has occurred under the current bench. "Vote NO on retention and demand a court that respects the people's voice, not political agendas." 

"This is the most pivotal judicial retention in our state's history. MAGA billionaires are trying to buy Pennsylvania's Supreme Court, and if they are successful, Pennsylvania's reproductive rights, voting rights, and workers' rights will all be at risk," Chair of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party Eugene DePasquale said in a statement to ABC News. "For the people that thought the Wisconsin Supreme Court race earlier this year was important, this race is that, but on steroids."