The NFL playoffs are coming to a crescendo, with the matchups for the conference championship games now set.
It begins Sunday with an Interstate 95 showdown between the No. 2 seedPhiladelphia Eagles(16-3, 12-17 against the spread, including playoffs) and the sixth-seededWashington Commanders(14-5, 13-6 ATS) for the NFC title.
The Eagles held off a lateLos Angeles Ramscomeback for a28-22win last Sunday in the divisional round to secure a matchup with their NFC East rivals, who upset the top-seededDetroit Lions45-31on Saturday to advance. It will be the third matchup of the season between these two teams, with the Eagles winning 26-18as 4.5-point favorites at home in Week 11 and the Commanders evening the series with a 36-33home victory as 4.5-point underdogs in Week 16.
The Eagles opened as 5-point favorites in the NFC Championship Game.
On the AFC side of the bracket, the two-time defending Super Bowl championKansas City Chiefs(16-2, 7-11 ATS) punched their ticket to a seventh straight conference title game with Saturday's23-14 win over theHouston Texansin the divisional round.
The conference's top seed will face theBuffalo Bills(15-4, 12-7 ATS), who escaped the Baltimore Ravens27-25on Sunday to force a rematch of the AFC Championship Game from the 2020 season. Kansas City won that game 38-24. The Chiefs fell to the Bills 30-21 in Buffalo in Week 11 this season.
Kansas City opened as a 1-point favorite for Sunday's matchup.
Super Bowl LIX will be played Feb. 9 (6:30 p.m. ET, Fox) at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.
Here are the updated lines, spreads and totals for the NFC and AFC conference championship games.
Betting trends
- The Commanders were 150-1 to win the Super Bowl entering the season, which would match the longest preseason odds for a Super Bowl participant since the NFL adopted a 16-game schedule in 1978.
- Their Super Bowl odds were as long as 200-1 during the season prior to upsetting the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3.
- Underdogs were 4-0 ATS in the divisional round and are 7-3 ATS this postseason. Home teams are 6-4 ATS. Unders are 6-4.
- Home teams were 0-2 ATS in conference championships last season. Over the last three postseasons, home teams are 2-4 ATS and unders are 5-1 in conference championship games.
- The Eagles are 16-24-1 ATS when laying at least four points under Nick Sirianni including playoffs and 6-14 ATS including playoffs since the start of last season (5-6 ATS this season).
- Washington is 15-5 ATS in the playoffs since 1987, including 3-0 ATS since 2020.
- The Commanders are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games.
- The Commanders are 5-3 outright and 6-2 ATS as underdogs this season, with three straight outright wins. They are 3-2 outright and 4-1 ATS when getting at least four points, with overs going 4-1 in those games.
- The Commanders are 9-1 ATS when the over/under is 46 or higher this season.
- The Eagles have won nine straight home games (5-4 ATS). They are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
- The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in division games this season.
- Since 1999, teams favored by at least four points in conference championship games are 10-16 ATS. They are 0-3 ATS and 1-2 outright in the last three games.
Betting trends
- The Bills were 12-7 ATS this season, while the Chiefs were 7-11 ATS. The Bills also went over their team total in 14 of 19 games, the highest rate in the NFL.
- This is the eighth straight matchup between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes where neither team is favored by more than three points, the longest streak in any quarterback head-to-head matchup in the Super Bowl era.
- Patrick Mahomes is 22-9-1 ATS (.710) when the line is between +3 and -3, and Josh Allen is 25-15-2 ATS (.625). The Bills have covered four straight games in that role.
- Allen and Mahomes are 4-4 outright and ATS against each other. However, while Allen is 4-1 outright and ATS against Mahomes in the regular season, Mahomes is 3-0 outright and ATS in the playoffs. All three playoff meetings have gone over the total (overs are 6-2 overall in their matchups).
- Mahomes is 12-5 ATS in his playoff career, including 6-1 ATS in his last seven games. The only non-cover in his last seven games came last week when the Chiefs won by 9 as 9.5-point favorites on the closing line.
- The Chiefs are 9-0 outright at home this season but only 3-6 ATS and 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
- Four straight Bills road games have gone over the total.
- The Chiefs have won nine games this season in which they did not cover the spread (9-2), the most wins in a single season in the Super Bowl era (including playoffs). Mahomes is 36-24 outright when not covering the spread (.600), the only quarterback in the Super Bowl era with a winning record in that role (minimum five games).
- Allen is 19-15-1 ATS in his career as an underdog
- The Chiefs are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games.
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