Senators urge halt to wildfire betting markets after $1.2M in bets placed during 2025 SoCal fires
SAN JOSE, Calif. -- California Senators Alex Padilla and Adam Schiff, along with seven other U.S. senators, are calling on online trading platforms to stop offering betting markets tied to wildfires, arguing that the practice profits from disaster and could create harmful incentives.
The lawmakers raised concerns after more than $1.2 million in bets were placed during the 2025 Palisades and Eaton wildfires in Los Angeles.
According to the report, that total was nearly 10 times greater than the amount wagered on a recent San Francisco Giants game.
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Online prediction markets have expanded beyond sports betting to allow users to wager on a wide range of real-world events, including weather, political speeches, esports and, more recently, wildfires.
"There's starting to be the ability to actually place bets on whether wildfires will occur, how quickly they'll spread. It's monetizing human suffering and potential harm to people," said Ann Skeet, senior director of leadership ethics at the Markkula Center for Applied Ethics at Santa Clara University.
Platforms such as Polymarket allow users to bet on the outcomes of events ranging from elections to sports and other public occurrences.
The betting activity tied to major wildfires prompted the senators, including Padilla and Schiff, to send a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
In the letter, the lawmakers wrote: "Offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities' suffering all so the rich and powerful can profit."
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They also stated: "As the United States faces yet another record-breaking fire season this year, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) cannot allow these prediction markets to offer unrestricted betting on wildfires."
Skeet said the practice raises concerns beyond ethics alone.
"We refer to it as perverse incentives, when someone's motivated to do something that is not good, not serving society. And certainly in this case, the ability to start a fire"
The report also noted that a new website, Wyldfyre, launched this year and offers what it describes as the first real-time prediction market for California wildfires.
CAL FIRE said in a statement that safeguards are in place to prevent its firefighters from using predictive betting sites. However, the senators are seeking answers to several questions and are urging the commission to establish what they describe as common-sense guardrails.
Polymarket and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission had not responded to requests for comment. The senators have given the CFTC until Aug. 14 to respond to their letter.
