Team USA Olympic stock watch: Which NBA players are rising, falling?

The 2028 Olympics will come to a close two years from this week. And one of the final events of that international competition will be the men's five-on-five basketball gold medal game.

Team USA should be a participant. Not only have the Americans won five consecutive gold medals -- and eight of nine since NBA players joined the Olympic field -- but they'll also have home-court advantage at the 2028 Games in Los Angeles.

But 2028 might not be smooth sailing for the men's basketball hosts. Four of the past five gold medal wins have been close (two against Spain, two against France), and the program is in a time of transition after veterans LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant led the way in Paris in 2024.

Earlier this year, we took an early look at the candidates to make the 2028 roster and made an early prediction of the players who will receive those 12 coveted spots.

But basketball is a game of change, so it's important to conduct regular check-ins over the next two years before the next Olympic roster is announced. Let's take a look at a handful of players whose Olympic stock has risen and another handful whose stock has fallen since that piece ran in February, based on player performance over the second half of the 2025-26 season and postseason.

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Stock Up|Stock Down

GJalen Brunson, New York Knicks

Brunson wasn't one of the final 12 players I projected on my initial sketch of the 2028 Olympic roster. But it's hard to deny the Finals MVP that forecasted spot now.

He has won at every level -- a state championship in high school, two national championships in college and now a championship in the NBA. All he's missing is a gold medal on the international stage.

Brunson's patience, poise and composure make him one of the best clutch scorers in the NBA, so he could assume some of the late-game responsibility that James, Curry and Durant held in 2024. And with France looming as the greatest threat to the Americans' gold medal chances -- the French have won the past two Olympic silver medals -- it's a point in Brunson's favor that he knows how to score over and around Victor Wembanyama.

He also has showed a desire to play for his country before: Brunson changed his wedding dateto play for Team USA at the 2023 World Cup.

FScottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors

Barnes was one of the last players to make my preliminary roster in February, and he's on firmer footing now. His 2026 postseason lasted only seven games before Toronto lost to Cleveland, but he made the most of his short exposure in the limelight. Barnes averaged 24.1 points, 8.6 assists and 6.1 rebounds per game in the playoffs, and he added 1.7 blocks and 1.1 steals on the other end. That stat stuffing came after Barnes was the only player in the regular season to tally more than 100 blocks and 100 steals.

Barnes' defensive versatility makes him a great fit on an Olympic roster, and he's not the sort of star whose value will be suppressed if he has to take a backseat on offense. That sounds like a prime Olympic candidate.

FJaden McDaniels, Minnesota Timberwolves

I earmarked one spot on my roster projection for an ace perimeter stopper who could offer energy and shutdown defense off the bench, which would be especially helpful if Team USA's guards are offense-first players like Brunson and Tyrese Haliburton.

McDaniels made a case as the best player in that role last season. He had the best season of his career from 3-point range (41%), and in the playoffs, he largely shut down a pair of All-Star point guards in Jamal Murray andDe'Aaron Fox.

It doesn't hurt that McDaniels also has proven chemistry with Anthony Edwards, who is close to a lock for the 2028 roster. McDaniels will be 27 years old at the 2028 Olympics, which places him in the perfect age range for consideration.

GDylan Harper, San Antonio Spurs

The fiercest positional battle for the Olympic roster should be at guard, due to the quantity and quality of the American options at the position. So, this blurb is not meant to suggest that Harper, who will be 22 years old in the summer of 2028, is a leading candidate to make the next Olympic roster.

But the No. 2 pick in the 2025 draft showed so much poise and playoff chops as a rookie that he at least entered the conversation. Who knows how much Harper will improve over the next two years?

The player picked ahead of Harper in last year's draft, Cooper Flagg, was on my initial 2028 roster projection, and he remains there after a phenomenal close to his rookie season. But he's not the only young 2025 draftee worth considering -- because after all, Flagg did all of his work in the regular season, whereas Harper was frequently the best playoff guard on the floor for a team that reached the Finals.

CBam Adebayo, Miami Heat

Adebayo himself barely participated in the postseason as he suffered a back injury early in Miami's play-in loss. But he's on this list because his profile rose in contrast, as his competition for Team USA's center spots was even more lackluster.

Both Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis -- the other two centers from the 2024 roster -- were injured for most of last season. And top young American bigs Jalen Duren, Chet Holmgren and Evan Mobley were all neutral to downright negative performers in the playoffs.

Conversely, the most productive big men in the playoffs were all international players who won't play for Team USA, including Wembanyama, Karl-Anthony Towns, Isaiah Hartenstein and Rudy Gobert. By process of elimination, Adebayo is now on firmer ground to make his third Olympic roster after winning gold in Tokyo and Paris earlier this decade.

FLeBron James, Philadelphia 76ers

This is a wild-card pick, as James still seems unlikely to play in his fifth Olympics. When asked if he might play at the 2028 tournament on an episode of the "Mind the Game" podcast last November, James said, "Don't even ask. I will be watching it from Cabo."

But it's not hard to do the math: James just agreed to a new two-year contract with Philadelphia, and while the second year is a player option, it projects to run through June 2028 -- just one month before the next Olympic Games.

Is it that hard to imagine James, who will be 43 years old by then, changing his stance and deciding to go out with one final Olympic hurrah?

CChet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder

Holmgren remains one of Team USA's most promising young big men, and he largely lived up to that billing last season. He finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting and made an All-NBA team for the first time, and he was incredibly efficient through the Thunder's sweeps in the postseason's first two rounds.

But Holmgren disappeared for most of the conference finals: He averaged just 10.7 PPG on 51% shooting against the Spurs (down from 18.6 PPG on 60% shooting in the first two rounds), and he attempted just two shots in Game 7.

It's unclear whether such a drastic change might affect the Olympic selection process if it persists in Holmgren's play against San Antonio over the next two seasons. Team USA can't build a roster solely with one potential opponent in mind, after all. But it would surely be a bonus for the American big men to be able to match up against Wembanyama without appearing visibly spooked.

CJalen Duren, Detroit Pistons

It's difficult to overstate how far Duren's stock fell in the postseason. Compared with the regular season, when he was a worthy All-NBA selection, the 22-year-old Pistons center averaged 9.3 fewer points per game in the playoffs. That's the largest drop for an All-Star since 1969 (minimum 10 games), per ESPN Research.

But it's not just that Duren's raw production fell; it's that stylistically, he looked uncomfortableand passive. That's not the approach that Team USA brass is looking for in its search for players who can compete in the most intense situations with the highest stakes on the line.

Duren has two more years to redeem himself and prove he can play just as effectively in May as he can in January. But back when I made my initial 2028 roster projection, Duren grabbed the final spot for a center; he wouldn't hold it now.

GKon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets

Knueppel looked like a promising sleeper Olympic candidate in February as an ascending youngster whose 3-point prowess would make him especially valuable with the shorter Olympic 3-point line. He even grabbed a spot on my 12-man roster projection as I tried to construct a realistic team with stars and specialists.

But Knueppel is no longer in that top tier because of how he finished the season. He slumped a bit toward the end of the regular season, then shot 5-for-22 (3-for-12 on 3s) across Charlotte's two play-in games and sat on the bench down the stretch of the Hornets' overtime win against Miami. Like Duren, he's young enough that he could work his way back into Olympic position over the next two seasons, with more even campaigns from start to finish. But also like Duren, he's on the outside looking in for now.

GDonovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers
On the positive side, Mitchell reached the conference finals for the first time in his career. But on the negative side, Mitchell struggled far more than usual in the postseason on an individual basis, which ran counter to his reputation as an excellent playoff performer.

Worst of all for the seven-time All-Star, Mitchell is now clearly behind Brunson in the pecking order of American guards. There's probably room for only one of them at the Olympics, at most, because of how similar they are: Mitchell and Brunson were born just a week apart -- they'll be 31 years old at the next Olympics -- and they occupy the same offensive role with defensive shortcomings.

GDerrick White, Boston Celtics
White might have always been a long shot to return to the Olympic roster in 2028, given that he'll be 34 years old by that point. But White was a gold medalist in 2024, and his two-way play could keep him in consideration.

Yet while White's defense was about as good as ever in 2025-26, his offensive output sputtered. White shot just 39% from the field last season -- 33% on 3-pointers and 49% on 2s. Among qualified players, his effective field goal percentage ranked third worst, ahead of only Pelicans rookies Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen.

Coupled with White's age, that downturn suggests he'll be too far removed from his peak by 2028 to return to the Olympic roster.

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