2024 winter outlook: How much snow can we expect in the Philadelphia region?

PHILADELPHIA (WPVI) -- It's been a disappointing trend for snow lovers: below-average snowfall in five of the past six winters, with two years not even getting an inch.

The winter chill has also pulled a disappearing act, with above-average temperatures in nine of the last 10 winters. Four of them ranked in the top 10 warmest on record.

So, will this year be different? Will winter lovers finally get buried in snow? For that answer, we're heading to the oceans. That's because the oceans cover 71% of the Earth's surface and drive weather patterns across the globe.

Water temperatures in the Atlantic are still above average. This creates high pressure off the Southeast coast, which pushes warmer air into our region.

Meanwhile, water temperatures in parts of the Pacific are below average, causing what's known as a strongly negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). This tends to create a cool dip in the jetstream for the western U.S. and a ridge of warmer air in the east.

At the same time, slightly below-average ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are expected to create a weak La Niña heading into the winter.

What does weak La Niña mean for us?

La Niña -- that typically does not favor those cold and snowy winters here at home. Eighty percent of the weak La Niñas since 1959 have brought below-average snowfall. Some were significantly below just two years ago.

The typical La Niña pattern brings the northern polar jet from the Pacific Northwest and then dives down into the Northern Plains before lifting into northern New England. This leads to a weaker storm track that favors systems passing by to our northwest, keeping us on the mild side, with the best chance of snow through the Great Lakes and northern New England.

Climate change has been a big factor as of late

Winters are the fastest warming season across the United States. Here in Philadelphia, the average winter temperatures have increased almost six degrees since 1970.

Putting all of this together. Here are the key points for the upcoming winter.

Just like last year, we expect no real lengthy periods of cold, just a few brief shots. So overall, temperatures look to be on the mild side, with more in the way of rain or mixed precipitation events rather than those classic snowstorms. This will give us another winter with below-average snowfall.

Snow predictions

Lehigh Valley: about 22 to 28 inches
Philadelphia: around 14 to 20 inches
Jersey Shore along the coast: 9 to 15 inches

Even though we are expecting another, let's say, lackluster season for snow lovers, it doesn't mean you're not going to need your winter coat ice scrapers and shovels from time to time.