Breaking down College Football Playoff, conference races entering Week 13

This has turned into just about the best possible season for a 12-team College Football Playoff to make its debut.

There's been no talk of anyone sitting players in the coming weeks, one of the doom scenarios expansion skeptics brought up. The five to seven best teams in the country are far closer to each other than usualin terms of quality, meaning your draw once you reach the playoff is going to mean an absolute ton. The Group of 5 has produced a team good enough to nearly beat the No. 1 team in the country and, according to the current CFP rankings, maybe even steal a first-round bye. And there's a solid chance that a very good two-loss SEC team gets left out, meaning that any fears of lowering the bar too far or allowing mediocre teams into the field are quickly being allayed.

Granted, we're still dealing with a maddening CFP committee that makes maddeningly inconsistent decisions from week to week. And granted, leaving out a very good SEC team likely will result in SEC commissioner Greg Sankey going scorched earth and demanding playoff expansion and many auto-bids for his conference, which might not be great. Then again, he was almost certainly going to do that this offseason anyway, so what does it matter?

We've got two Saturdays left to determine who will reach the nine conference championship games -- somehow, a few title races are getting blurrier, not clearer at the moment -- and then a third Saturday to figure out the CFP's 12-team field. Let's walk through all the conference title odds, what's at stake in the coming week and, for the chaos seekers among us, where things are most likely to go off the rails for the top teams.

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Thoughts on the CFP rankings

Heading into the season, it was pretty easy to make generalizations about the impending 12-team field: On average, about four bids would go to SEC teams, four would go to Big Ten teams, and the other four would be divvied up among the Big 12 champ, ACC champ, Group of 5 representative and one extra team (most likely Notre Dame).

As recently as two weeks ago, however, things seemed pretty messy. Miami and BYU were both unbeaten and looked like potential bid stealers -- if either finished 12-0 but lost in their respective conference championship games, they would likely land an at-large bid all the same. And with Notre Dame in good shape, too, that would have meant one fewer bid for the SEC or Big Ten.

Miami and BYU are no longer unbeaten. At eighth in the current rankings, Miami could technically still eke out a bid with another loss, though it feels doubtful. And to say the least, BYU's plummet from sixth to 14th after a single loss tells you about the odds of the Big 12 being a multibid conference. So as we inch closer to the CFP selection, suddenly it's looking like ... four bids for the SEC, four for the Big Ten and four for everyone else.

(My own thoughts about BYU: Kansas ranks higher than Georgia Tech in SP+, so the fact that BYU fell eight spots after losing to the Jayhawks, one week after Miami dropped only five spots for losing to the Yellow Jackets, was confusing. It doesn't change the main facts of the matter -- another loss would have dropped the Cougars out of the top 12 regardless -- but it was odd all the same. But I'm used to being confused by the committee. And apparently head-to-head results, which the committee has also adhered to religiously, doesn't matter when SMU loses to BYU?)

The two main questions heading into this week's rankings were (1) how far would BYU fall, and (2) in what order would the Bama-Ole Miss-Georgia-Tennessee quartet rank? All four are two-loss SEC teams, and there's just no way to rank them in some indisputable way. Ole Miss went 1-0 against the other three but also lost to Kentucky. Georgia went 1-2 against the other three but beat Texas.

The reason I've always preferred adding a computer component to a ranking like this is that computers can look at the entire picture. A mix of power ratings (SP+ and the FPI) and résumé ratings (résumé SP+ and strength of record) would rank Georgia first among this group (not a surprise with the Bulldogs' superior strength of schedule), followed by Alabama, Ole Miss and Tennessee. The committee went with Bama, Ole Miss, Georgia, then Tennessee. I guess all that matters is which team ranks last (since that's the team most likely to end up on the outside of the playoff), and the committee agrees with the computers there, at least.

Maybe the most important point to remember, though? If one of these four SEC teams is left out in two weeks, the snubbed team still will have lost twice. They could have saved themselves by not doing that.

The most important point I can make, by the way: The upsets probably aren't done. College football tends to make a mockery of our arguing by rendering it moot. Tennessee fans are outraged about their ranking right now? It will seem pretty quaint if the Volunteers lose at Vanderbilt next week. Ole Miss fans are feeling comfort from their team's spot in the rankings? Well, there's about a 6-to-1 chance their Rebels lose at Florida this Saturday.

Working on the assumption that all the at-large bids are going to go to the Big Ten, SEC and Notre Dame, there are still quite a few upset opportunities remaining over the next two weeks, and the odds that all the favorites win are minuscule.

Week 13

Indiana at Ohio State: Ohio State has a 78% win probability, per SP+

Notre Dame vs. Army: Notre Dame 82%

Penn State at Minnesota: Penn State 83%

Ole Miss at Florida: Ole Miss 84%

Alabama at Oklahoma: Bama 84%

Each Friday in my weekly preview column, I post a "Chaos Superfecta," in which I mash a bunch of games with high win probabilities together to point out that the odds of an upset are still pretty high. Well, with a nod to the Superfecta, the odds of all five favorites above winning, per SP+, are only 37%. On average, the favorites win about 4.1 of those five games. Any upset among this batch of games is going to produce a massive shakeup, and the favorites going 5-0 is only a little bit more likely than those teams going 3-2. Plus, we're not even including No. 15Texas A&M's trip to face the always dangerous and perpetually disaster-prone Auburn Tigers this weekend. (A&M's win probability, per SP+, is only 58%.)

Week 14

Texas at Texas A&M: Texas 67% win probability

Notre Dame at USC: Notre Dame 71%

Tennessee at Vanderbilt: Tennessee 85%

Auburn at Alabama: Alabama 87%

Georgia Tech at Georgia: Georgia 93%

There's only a 33% chance that all five Week 14 favorites win. On average, they win 4.0 out of five, though two of the five potential upsets are quite a bit more likely than the others. All in all, of the 10 games listed above, there's only a 12% chance (about 1-in-8) that every favorite wins. The single most likely scenario is a pair of upsets and a solid shuffle among potential CFP teams. We don't know nearly all of what we need to know about who will be in the field just yet.

SP+ title odds: Alabama (38.9%), Texas (34.4%), Georgia (18.7%), Texas A&M (7.2%)

On one hand, the SEC standings got even messier Saturday following Georgia's win over Tennessee. Even with Missouri and LSU suffering third conference losses, we ended up with two one-loss teams (Texas and Texas A&M) and the four two-loss teams that the CFP committee is currently trying to sort out (Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss and Tennessee). Since either Texas or A&M is guaranteed to lose when they play each other in a week and a half, this means 1,000 potential title game scenarios, right?

Not really. Because of key tiebreakers like "conference opponent win percentage" and "record vs. common opponents," both Ole Miss and Tennessee are virtually eliminated barring a round of particularly extreme chaos. Texas and Alabama are the two most likely teams to reach the SEC championship game, and Georgia and A&M are the primary backups. If all favorites win over the next two weeks (and they almost certainly won't), it's Bama-Texas. If Alabama loses to Oklahoma or Auburn, Georgia likely replaces the Tide. If A&M wins out, the Aggies are in over Texas.

Semi-realistic chaos scenario to root for Saturday: While an Ole Miss loss to Florida would have mammoth implications for the CFP picture, it wouldn't make a ripple in the SEC race. If you're attempting to will chaos into existence for the SEC race, the best I can do is to tell you that, per SP+, there's about a 22% chance that either Kentucky (over Texas) or Oklahoma (over Bama) pulls a massive upset this weekend. Week 13's best chaos opportunities reside in the Big Ten.

SP+ title odds: Oregon (44.5%), Ohio State (43.8%), Indiana (8.3%), Penn State (3.3%)

Things have been pretty static of late in the Big Ten. Oregon beat Ohio State in Week 7, Ohio State beat Penn State in Week 10, and boom, there's our relative hierarchy. On Saturday, Oregon labored against Wisconsin while Ohio State manhandled Northwestern, and because of the way the teams' SP+ ratings changed in the process -- Ohio State remained No. 1, while Oregon slipped to No. 5 -- the Buckeyes' title odds rose slightly while the Ducks' sank by a similar amount. But Oregon, having clinched a spot in Indianapolis, remains the overall favorite.

Unbeaten Indiana, meanwhile, has lurked as a wild card for a while but hasn't yet gotten a chance to truly prove itself in a major game. That changes Saturday, when the Hoosiers get the ultimate prove-it chance, facing Ohio State in Columbus as a two-touchdown (or so) underdog. We don't know how the playoff committee will react to an Indiana loss -- especially a blowout -- in terms of where they would place a one-loss IU in comparison to the morass of two-loss SEC teams. But until the Hoosiers lose, they could win! And if they do win, all that would separate them from a spot in Indianapolis would be a win over either the worst or second-worst Purdue team since World War II.

Semi-realistic chaos scenario to root for Saturday: Indiana beating Ohio State would produce obvious ripples, but we've got an underrated secondary upset candidate as well, with Penn State's trip to Minnesota. The Gophers have been mostly strong at home this season, and PSU has lost in its past two trips to Huntington Bank Stadium. SP+ gives Minnesota a 17% chance of pulling an upset that would make OSU-Indiana a true win-and-you're-in game.

SP+ title odds: Miami (48.4%), SMU (40.0%), Clemson (11.6%)

With about 90 seconds left in Clemson-Pitt on Saturday, Pitt, leading 20-17, had an in-game win probability of 71%. With about six minutes left in SMU-Boston College, the favored Mustangs led only 31-28, and BC still had a 25% win probability.

The ACC title race thought about getting really weird, in other words, but in the end SMU made the stops it needed in a 38-28 win, while Cade Klubnik's shocking 50-yard touchdown run gave Clemson the victory as well.

With Clemson in the clubhouse at 7-1 and Louisville almost voluntarily eliminating itself from the race -- the Cardinals sabotaged themselves by committing 20 yards' worth of penalties with one second left, therefore putting Stanford in range to win with a 52-yard field goal at the buzzer -- the stakes are clear:

SMU (6-0 in league play) can clinch a spot in the ACC championship game by winning one of its next two games (Virginia on the road, Cal at home). SP+ says there's a 96% chance the Mustangs do so.

Miami (5-1) has to win each of its next two games (Wake Forest at home, Syracuse on the road) to clinch. SP+ gives the Hurricanes an 81% chance of doing so.

If either SMU or Miami fails to fulfill its above obligations, Clemson is in. Even at 7-1, the Tigers need a lot of help because of the "common opponents" tiebreaker -- they lost to Louisville, while both SMU and Miami beat the Cardinals.

Semi-realistic chaos scenario to root for Saturday: Per SP+, Miami has a 96% chance of beating Wake on Saturday, so if you're looking for drama, SMU, with an 85% projected win probability at Virginia, is your better bet.

SP+ title odds: BYU (38.6%), Colorado (38.0%), Arizona State (11.7%), Iowa State (10.0%), Kansas State (1.1%)

Three weeks ago, the Big 12 title race looked pretty clear: There was a greater than 90% chance that the title would go to either unbeaten BYU (33.8%), unbeaten Iowa State (27.4%) or one-loss Kansas State (30.1%). Colorado (5.2%) lurked as a long shot. Arizona State (0.4%) was an extreme long shot.

Things look awfully different now. In Week 10, Texas Tech upset Iowa State and Houston upset Kansas State. In Week 11, BYU needed last-second heroics to beat Utah, while Kansas made it back-to-back losses for Iowa State. In Week 12, BYU finally succumbed after a couple of great escapes, losing to Kansas, while Kansas State lost again, this time to Arizona State at home.

Over these three weeks, BYU, Iowa State and Kansas State have gone a combined 2-5 and watched their title odds diminish to a combined 50%. Colorado and Arizona State have gone 5-0 and increased theirs to 50%. Just last week, CU's odds rose by 17.5 percentage points, while ASU's rose by 9.6, BYU's fell by 11.2 and K-State's fell by 15.5. We think we know the stakes here -- at a matching 6-1, BYU and Colorado are your new favorites, with 5-2 Arizona State and Iowa State one game back -- but BYU and ASU face off Saturday, and who's to say we don't get another round of upsets as well?

Semi-realistic chaos scenario to root for Saturday: Take your pick. BYU and Arizona State are playing a tossup game in Tempe (BYU's win probability, per SP+: 56%), while Kansas, the current lord of chaos, hosts Colorado (CU's win probability: 54%). Even Iowa State isn't out of the woods: The Cyclones have only a 60% win probability against all-defense Utah in Salt Lake City. We've got four primary title favorites, one is guaranteed to lose, and there's an 18% chance that three of them do!

Group of 5 forecast

As far as the CFP goes, things have crystallized in the Group of 5 ranks. We're getting Army-Tulane in the American championship game, Boise State is all but guaranteed to play in the Mountain West championship game, and whether the Broncos face Colorado State or UNLV, they'll be comfortable favorites. If Army upsets Notre Dame this weekend, it could open up some incredible (but still remote) "BSU and Army in, Big 12 or ACC champion out?" scenarios, but those would still be pretty unlikely, and Army over Notre Dame would be a pretty significant upset anyway.

Boise State is the obvious favorite for a CFP slot, and the winner of Tulane-Army is most likely to take advantage if the Broncos slip. That's relatively drama free. But at least two other G5 races will give us some strong drama over the next couple of weeks.

AAC: Army (50.8%), Tulane (49.2%)

Tulane waylaid Navy on Saturday, thereby clinching this matchup. We don't yet know where Army and Tulane will be playing -- that will likely depend on the results of Army-Notre Dame and Tulane-Memphis -- but we know they'll be playing.

Conference USA: Western Kentucky (37.5%), Jacksonville State (33.7%), Liberty (20.1%), Sam Houston (8.8%)

Western Kentucky's offense no-showed against a strong Louisiana Tech defense last week, and that completely upended the CUSA race. Jacksonville State has played with fire for two straight weeks, nearly losing to both Louisiana Tech and Florida International but surviving both games with its unbeaten conference record intact, and like WKU, Sam Houston currently stands at 5-1. Liberty is another game back at 4-2.

Why does Liberty have the third-best title odds, then? Because the CUSA conference schedule has turned out to be wonderfully back-loaded. On Saturday, Jacksonville State hosts Sam Houston while Liberty hosts WKU. The next week, Liberty travels to SHSU while Jacksonville State visits WKU. The four favorites are playing two-thirds of a round robin, and Liberty has a 35% chance of winning out and giving itself an excellent title chance. Because of all the head-to-heads, this is probably the single most interesting conference title race in the FBS at the moment.

MAC: Toledo (32.2%), Bowling Green (32.1%), Miami (Ohio) (15.7%), Western Michigan (8.6%), Ohio (5.4%), Northern Illinois (4.0%), Buffalo (2.0%)

Thanks to a particularly strong showing from Toledo against Central Michigan and Bowling Green's head-to-head win over Western Michigan, both the Rockets (up 9.2 percentage points) and Falcons (up 5.2) saw their odds boosted during last week's midweek MACtion. But the standings are still stubbornly crowded, with Bowling Green, Miami (Ohio) and Ohio all sporting one conference loss -- note: the odds were run before Tuesday night's games -- and Buffalo and Toledo sporting two.

Toledo hosts Ohio on Wednesday night, while Bowling Green hosts Miami on Nov. 29. Those two games will go the furthest in deciding who makes it to Detroit.

Mountain West: Boise State (79.8%), UNLV (13.4%), Colorado State (6.8%)

In terms of pure quality, the Mountain West has a clear hierarchy: Boise State ranks 23rd in SP+ and is unbeaten in conference play, UNLV ranks 46th in SP+ and has lost only to BSU, and no one else is in the top 75.

When you ditch divisions and shrink your conference schedule*, however, you're creating less connectivity among the teams, and you're begging for an odd result in the standings. You know, like Colorado State, No. 85 in SP+, playing all of the conference's worst teams, avoiding both BSU and UNLV and finishing unbeaten. The Rams are two games away from pulling that off. If they beat Fresno State on Saturday (odds, per SP+: 40%) and Utah State next Friday (79%), they'll play Boise for the championship. If they don't, and UNLV wins out, the Rebels will get their rematch.

(* A reminder that the MWC partnered with Oregon State and Washington State, with every team playing one or the other while shrinking their conference schedules down to seven games. This was almost certainly done with the thought of eventually adding OSU and Wazzu to their conference ranks; instead, OSU and Wazzu kept the Pac-12 alive and raided half the MWC instead, basically creating two MWCs. Whoops.)

Sun Belt: Louisiana (46.2%), James Madison (31.1%), Marshall (11.7%), Georgia Southern (6.4%), South Alabama (4.0%)

Like BYU, Louisiana had played with fire quite a bit in Sun Belt play. The Ragin' Cajuns finally got burned when a late 2-point conversion attempt came up inches short against South Alabama in a 24-22 loss.

Louisiana still leads three teams (Arkansas State, South Alabama and Texas State) by one game in the West division race and still has an 89% chance of reaching the conference title game, but their title odds fell by 15.6 percentage points, in part because James Madison, by far the best team in the Sun Belt per SP+, became far more likely to win the East division thanks to Georgia Southern's loss to Troy. JMU is tied with Georgia Southern at 4-2, while Marshall leads the pack at 5-1, but JMU hosts the Thundering Herd in Week 14, and the Dukes' projected win probability in that game, per SP+, is 77%. Win the East, and James Madison will be favored in the Sun Belt championship game too.