Lots of numbers to predict a Packers loss in Philly on Monday

ByBen Alamar ESPN logo
Monday, November 28, 2016

When the Green Bay Packers travel to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles Monday night, the deck will be stacked against them according to ESPN's Football Power Index, which gives them only a 29 percent chance to win. The Packers are likely to slide to 4-7, despite continued strong performances from Aaron Rodgers, because their defense ranks No. 30 in efficiency, and their special teams are No. 31.

Only the Browns have allowed a higher opponent QBR this season than the Packers, who allow the highest yards per attempt in the league (8.6) and the highest TD rate (6.7 percent of attempts go for TDs). It only gets worse when opponents throw deep. The Packers D allows opponents to complete 52 percent of passes 15 yards or longer for an average of 17.2 yards per attempt.

While Eagles' QB Carson Wentz has struggled a bit since a solid start to his rookie campaign, even he has to be excited to see the Green Bay defense coming to town. Wentz ranks 32nd in QBR and has had as many games below a 50 rating as above 50 so far this season, but he has also connected on more than 40 percent of his throws over 15 yards downfield. The Packers' historical strength on defense is pressuring the QB, but Wentz actually handles pressure well, completing 41 percent of his passes when pressured -- slightly ahead of Aaron Rodgers. Monday has a chance to be a strong night for Wentz.

The Packers' strength is on the offensive side where Rodgers is sixth in QBR and the team ranks seventh in offensive efficiency. That strength meets the Eagles' strength, though, which is a defense ranked seventh in efficiency. Entering Sunday's games, only the Vikings allowed a lower average QBR.

Plus, the Packers special teams are dreadful, with Green Bay ranking 31st overall in special teams efficiency. The Packers have done such a poor job covering kickoffs, for example, they have lost over 9 expected points this season on kickoffs. The Pack allows opponents to start a drive at the 29-yard line on average, after a kickoff -- worst in the league.

Unless the Packers can suddenly solve their defensive and special teams problems, Monday night looks like another long night for Green Bay and its fans.

For more from ESPN Analytics, visit the ESPN Analytics Index.