College Football playoff, bowl projections after Week 13

ByKyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach

Sunday, November 24, 2024

Seven ranked teams fell, including two unbeatens. The SEC race was scrambled again and the Big 12 became more muddled than ever. And we haven't even gotten to the College Football Playoff implications after one of the wildest weekends in recent memory.

After No. 5Indiana, No. 7 Alabama, No. 9 Ole Miss, No. 14 BYU, No. 15 Texas A&M, No. 16 Coloradoand No. 19 Armyall took it on the chin, who is left standing in the CFP and what is the fallout in the rest of the bowl picture? We're here to sort it all out.

In the new, expanded 12-team playoff, the five highest-ranked conference champions will make the field along with the next seven highest-ranked teams. The four highest-ranked conference champions will be awarded first-round byes, with the other eight teams meeting at the campus sites of the Nos. 5-8 seeds.

From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year's Six bowls, with this season's national championship game scheduled for Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 36-game slate of bowls, from the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 14 to the Bahamas Bowl on Jan. 4.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the CFP will play out, every week until the actual matchups are set on Selection Day (Dec. 8).

Jump to a section:br/>Playoff picks| Quarterfinalsbr/>Semis, title game| Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games

*Specific times and networks for each game TBD

First-round breakdown

Bonagura:Well, that looks a lot different, doesn't it? After such a chaotic weekend of college football, the most agreeable take here is that trying to make sense of all of this in a straightforward, logical way is a fool's errand. Comparing teams within the same conference isn't what is used to be given the inconsistency in what teams play each other, which leaves us ... here. The obvious big winner this week is Arizona State. The Sun Devils have emerged as the favorite in the Big 12 and a serious playoff contender at the perfect time. Indiana backed into a more comfortable position thanks to all the losses in the SEC, and Tennessee is a win against Vanderbilt away from sealing a playoff spot.

Schlabach:One of the craziest Saturdays in recent memory has completely altered my 12-team CFP bracket as well. After Alabama, Ole Miss, Colorado, Texas A&M and Indiana fell Saturday, I'm projecting Oregon to win the Big Ten, Miami to take the ACC, Georgia to claim the SEC and Arizona State to survive the Big 12. Boise State is my No. 4 seed as the projected Mountain West champion, although struggling Wyoming put up a good fight in the Broncos' 17-13 win Saturday. I think there's a chance the Sun Devils would end up being the No. 4 seed if they win the Big 12 and beat BYU or Iowa State in the Big 12 title game based on schedule strength. I also considered Ole Miss, Alabama, Clemson and South Carolina for the last two at-large bids, but went with SMU and Indiana.

CFP quarterfinals

Tuesday, Dec. 31

Wednesday, Jan. 1

Quarterfinals breakdown

Bonagura:We're back for another week of pointing out how flawed the format by not reseeding the teams after the first round. Oregon, in this hypothetical, would have to play Georgia in the quarterfinals, while Ohio State would get Boise State. Sure, Ohio State would have to win a game to get there, but the No. 12 seed will usually be a gimme for the No. 5 seed, and as good as Arizona State has been, it wouldn't figure to be a serious threat to beat the Buckeyes. The whole point of seeding teams is to reward the top teams. That was a major oversight in putting the playoff together.

Schlabach:I have No. 5 Ohio State, No. 6 Notre Dame, No. 7 Penn State and No. 8 Texas surviving first-round games at home and advancing to the quarterfinals. Oregon's path in my bracket seems a little easier than Kyle's. Ohio State would face the easiest path, outside of having to play three games, with potential games against SMU and Boise State to reach the semifinals. On the other side of the bracket, I have Georgia defeating Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl, where those teams played for a national championship in 1980, and Miami taking down Penn State in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl.

CFP semifinals, national championship game

Thursday, Jan. 9

Friday, Jan. 10

Monday, Jan. 20

National championship breakdown

Bonagura:Notre Dame remains somewhat of a mystery to me. It has obviously played well since the bizarre loss to Northern Illinois, but the poor strength of schedule presents a proverbial asterisk. More than ever, it feels like Notre Dame should be forced to join a conference. Tradition went out the window a long time ago in college football and allowing a major team to exist outside the normal confines of the sport is unserious behavior. The Irish are on the cusp of being rewarded with a premium seed despite the fact they won't be subjected to the physical toll or possibility of a loss in a conference title game.

Schlabach: I'm not sure Notre Dame would be seeded as high as it is if its name wasn't Notre Dame after that ugly loss to Northern Illinois. I have the Irish falling to Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. The Bulldogs would face a semi-road game against Miami in a CFP semifinal in the Orange Bowl. I'm sure Kirby Smart is thrilled about playing for an SEC title, which seemed pretty unlikely a week ago. A first-round bye would give his team a much-needed break to heal up. I have Ohio State playing Oregon in the other semifinal in the Cotton Bowl. If the Ducks get past the Longhorns in the Rose Bowl in my bracket, they'd conceivably play Ohio State (barring a big upset) for the third time this season. It's difficult to beat a team two times in a season, let alone three. I have Ohio State playing Georgia for the CFP national championship.