NFL analytics survey: Teams using advanced stats most, least

The Cleveland Browns are 1-1 with a precarious quarterback situation but still rank at the top of the NFL in one category: analytics. That's according to an ESPN poll of analytics staffers around the league.

It's a crown the Browns have defended for years. They took the title from the Baltimore Ravens in our 2021 survey and have maintained it since.

This year's survey -- which poses various questions about the usage of advanced metrics in the NFL -- was sent to an analytics staffer from each of the 32 teams. Though they were allowed to collaborate with coworkers, ESPN asked for one submission per organization to limit biases. I received answers from 22 teams. Some participants left comments, and I called others for contextual follow-ups. All were granted anonymity so they could speak freely and were allowed to abstain from certain questions. Survey responses were received in August.

Our questions delve into which teams are believed to be the most and least analytically advanced, how often the data is directly incorporated into on-field decisions and even who could be the next analytically minded general manager. I also asked our surveyees to make a series of probabilistic predictions about specific questions around the NFL. Overall, the idea was to get a larger understanding of analytics throughout the league today. Let's dig in on the findings.

Jump to a section:

Most analytically advanced | Most improved

Least analytically advanced | Analytics staff usage

Next GM candidates | Probabilistic predictions

Which NFL team is the most analytically advanced overall?

Out of 21 votes. Voting for your own team was permitted for these first three questions.

Answers:Cleveland Browns (10 votes), Baltimore Ravens(3), Philadelphia Eagles (2), Arizona Cardinals (1), Buffalo Bills (1), Chicago Bears (1), Dallas Cowboys (1),Houston Texans(1), New York Giants (1)

Which team produces the highest level of analytics work?

Answers:Cleveland Browns (9), Baltimore Ravens (3), Buffalo Bills (1), Chicago Bears (1),Cincinnati Bengals (1),Dallas Cowboys(1), Detroit Lions (1), Houston Texans (1), Jacksonville Jaguars (1), Miami Dolphins (1),Philadelphia Eagles(1)

Which team incorporates analytics the most into its decision-making?

Answers:Cleveland Browns (8), Philadelphia Eagles (6), Baltimore Ravens (3), Arizona Cardinals (1), Dallas Cowboys (1), Jacksonville Jaguars (1),Los Angeles Rams (1)

It wasn't simply that the Browns were named the most analytically advanced organization, it's that they swept all three major categories. A plurality of their analytics peers felt the Browns produced more advanced quantitative work than any other team, used it in decision-making most effectively or both.

"I just think they're so far ahead in terms of who they have on staff," a member of another AFC team's analytics department said. "Their data collection is advanced. The infrastructure that they've built over the past, like, decade still puts them ahead of the rest of the league."

Cleveland was only narrowly voted as the team that incorporates analytics the most into its decision-making, and some felt even if Cleveland was the most advanced organization, the Eagles actually incorporate the data more into their strategy -- you know, despite the team's high-profile error on fourth down at the end of its Week 2 "Monday Night Football" loss to the Falcons.

"Analytics and data is about seeking out information and being sort of ruthless about having a process on that. And they are pretty ruthless about having a process on that, they are going to take value where they can get it," said one senior analytics worker, who cited Philadelphia's high volume of trades. The Eagles'2022 trade with the Saints -- when they were essentially given a second- and third-round pick just to delay a first-round selection one year -- was a slam dunk value-wise.

And though fourth downs are just one small piece of the analytics pie, the Eagles have ranked in the top five in terms of least total win probability sacrificed through fourth-down errors in each of the past three seasons, according to ESPN Analytics (ironic, perhaps, given that blunder on Monday). The Bills ranked first in each of the past two years. I should warn, however, that judging fourth-down decisions, even over an entire season, can be noisy.

The product of most quantitative analysis is far less apparent -- because it could influence free agent signings, draft decisions, playcalling or other areas that don't scream "analytics" -- even if there is quantitative reasoning behind those choices. According to one analytics director, knowing the degree to which analytics informs decision-making "is a little bit harder to determine even as an analyst on a team. It's always hard to know exactly how much of the stuff you're providing is truly being used in a meaningful way."

The Ravens joined the Eagles in the tier below the Browns but ahead of everyone else.

"Baltimore has the big staff and they're doing good work from what you can tell," added the same analytics director, who voted for the Ravens as most analytically advanced. "I know their facility is extremely technically rigged. I know that they're tracking everything."

Which teams are among the top five most analytically advanced?

Out of 21 voters, 105 total votes. Voting for your own team was permitted for these two questions.

Answers:Cleveland Browns (20), Baltimore Ravens (19), Philadelphia Eagles (19), Dallas Cowboys (9), San Francisco 49ers (6),Buffalo Bills (5), Detroit Lions (5), Minnesota Vikings (4) and 13 other teams received one or two votes

Which team has improved the most in terms of overall analytics capability and implementation over the past two years?

Out of 20 voters.

Answers:Dallas Cowboys (13), Tennessee Titans (3),Chicago Bears (1), Detroit Lions (1), Houston Texans (1),Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1)

Dallas was chosen as the clear runaway most-improved franchise here over the past two years. The Cowboys have made substantial staffing changes since last summer, when they hired John Park as their director of strategic football operations from the Colts. They've since added four more full-time employees to their analytics group in addition to Kathy Evans -- a former VP at Monumental Sports (Washington Wizards and Mystics) and a big name in sports analytics -- and a pair of strategic football fellows.

"The growth of their team," an AFC staffer said on why they picked the Cowboys as the most improved. "It's Dallas, they have more resources than anybody. It's been cool to see that department grow."

Meanwhile, an analytics director who voted for the Lions for producing the highest level of analytics work said they've gotten a favorable impression of the quantitative analysis Detroit is doing after speaking with people who previously worked for that team and other upper-level staffers in the league.

"I think they're kind of an underrated team," the director said. "Just from quality, I don't think quantity, I'm just thinking about the level of work. ... I know Caio [Brighenti, the Lions' manager of football information] has been there for quite a while, and he's quite smart."

The director also felt front office leadership in Detroit has "bought in" on analytics. Game management-wise, Lions coach Dan Campbell has a reputation for being aggressive -- but the numbers tend to back that aggressiveness. Since Campbell and GM Brad Holmes were hired in 2021, the Lions lead the league in expected points added (EPA) from fourth-down decisions (34.1), as an example of that suggested buy-in.

That same director felt most NFL teams were closer in analytics adoption than perception. The director suggested that because analytics groups touch so many parts of the game, they can have different specialties depending on the team.

"The Browns might be great in coaching evolution [as in, adapting based on new metrics and information], whereas Detroit is really good with draft strategy, whereas Minnesota and the Eagles have a good sports science setup," the director said, citing what they felt was the analytical strength of each organization.

Which NFL team is the least analytically advanced?

Out of 19 voters.

Answers:Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9), New England Patriots (4), Pittsburgh Steelers (4),Arizona Cardinals (1), Cincinnati Bengals (1)

The Buccaneers are the last team to have just one full-time analytics staffer, according to my running list -- vice president of football research Jacqueline Davidson.

"Jacqueline is great, but she needs help," one respondent wrote in the comment section of the survey. "She's a one-woman army and it's impossible to compete alone. [My vote] was not a criticism of her but a call for reinforcements for all she does for her team."

Tennessee, it should be noted, topped this category two years ago when it had a single analytics staff member. But the Titans hired Sarah Bailey as director of football research and development from the Rams in 2023 and now have a four-person group. They didn't receive a single vote in this category this year -- and even received several for most improved.

Does your team have an analytics staffer on the coaching headset?

Out of 22 voters.

Yes: 17

No: 5

Do any analytics department members on your team regularly attend position meetings?

Yes: 14

No: 8

Do any ever speak directly to players about quantitative findings?

Yes: 12

No: 10

The 17-5 count for analytics employees on the headset is the highest ratio we've seen since I began asking this question in 2021 (the ratio was 13-8 on the last survey in 2022). It's important to note the received responses are not random, and it is possible teams that are more analytically inclined are more likely to respond, but the jump is interesting nonetheless.

I asked one staffer for a team that does not have an analyst on the headset if they wished it did.

"I think so," they said. "I would hope it would help our process and make us more sound in our decision-making, if not more consistent. And if we can squeeze out a few percentage points of win probability, that's great -- that's a huge impact."

One survey-taker from the AFC thought having analytics personnel on a headset wasn't critical, though.

"It's a less glamorous job than people make it out to be. How many times per game is it an analytical decision? A lot of people in that role know football back and forth: the rules, the challenges. ... It is an important role, [but] I don't know if it necessarily needs to be a full-time analyst," they said.

Most people I spoke to felt that attending position meetings was valuable both in terms of delivering information and further educating themselves, particularly about scheme.

"I think it's both. But I think if I had to pick one of those, it's [the analytics department] learning," a senior analytics staffer said. "There's a lot of nuance, and I think the more we're just there learning, I think that's the biggest part of it."

The number of votes in favor of analytics personnel briefing players directly surprised me, though one person noted that they voted yes despite it only being occasional.

"In terms of talking to the players, that to me has always been a little faux pas, because they're hearing so much from all these other people," the analytics director said. "It's not that I have never spoken to them or anything. But I speak to them through our sport scientists that work in the weight room, through our head coach or through our position coaches."

What do they speak to players about? Answers included logic behind game management decisions, opponent scouting, self scouting and even performance data.

Among current analytics staffers, who will next become an NFL GM? And what about candidates to land a GM job down the road?

Votes were combined for these two questions, 33 total votes combined. Voting for yourself was not permitted.

Alec Halaby, Eagles assistant general manager (9)

John Park, Cowboys director of strategic football operations (4)

Dave Giuliani, Browns vice president, research & strategy (3)

Jacqueline Davidson, Buccaneers vice president of football research (2)

Brian Hampton, 49ers vice president of football administration (2)

Andrew Healy, Browns vice president, research & strategy (2)

Corey Krawiec, Chargers director of player personnel strategy (2)

Ty Siam, Giants director of football data & innovation (2)

Demitrius Washington, Vikings vice president of football operations (2)

Dennis Lock, Bills senior director of football research (1)

Meredith Manley, 49ers analyst, football R&D (1)

Ekene Olekanma, 49ers coordinator, football R&D (1)

Shravan Ramamurthy, 49ers analyst, football R&D (1)

Zach Stuart, Saints director of analytics (1)

Halaby was the runaway selection in terms of next analytics GM, with voters noting both his title and the fact he has previously interviewed for GM positions, including for open spots in Carolina and Washington last season.

"At the end of the day, he's the highest-ranking analytics person that's not a GM I believe in the league. And he's part of an organization that has had a significant amount of success," another team's analytics director said of the Eagles' assistant general manager.

Giuliani, who received the third-most votes, started with the 49ers in 2011 before moving to the Eagles and then eventually joining the Browns in 2016. He began in Cleveland as an analyst and rose through the ranks.

"One of his super powers is his incredibly deep knowledge of scheme -- he sees the whole picture, both from the personnel and coaching side," an analytics staffer said.

Giuliani is one of two vice presidents of research and strategy for the Browns. Healy is a former economics professor who also joined the Browns in 2016 and was promoted into his current role in 2020.

"I think he deserves to be in the [GM] conversation," a different analytics employee said of Healy. "He's tenured, he's experienced, he knows ball."

Kwesi Adofo-Mensah became the NFL's first GM to come from the analytics ranks when he was hired by the Vikings in 2022. Adofo-Mensah brought in Demitrius Washington -- who received two votes here -- from the 49ers, setting him up for a potential jump similar to Adofo-Mensah's move two years ago.

"He's in the right role to make that next step," one survey-taker said. "He has the interpersonal skills you'd want in that job. ... If [Minnesota rookie quarterback] J.J. McCarthy is really good, [Washington is] probably somebody that's going to get that chance."

Probabilistic prediction quick-hitters

Knowing that analytics personnel constantly deal in probability and uncertainty, I asked our surveyees to make a series of probabilistic predictions about football. For each question, respondents were asked to provide the probability from 0-100 (integers only) that the answer would be "yes." I detailed the minimum, median and maximum responses for each prompt. And again, a reminder that all survey responses came in August, prior to the beginning of the 2024 season. All of these questions received either 18 or 19 votes.

Will Caleb Williams have the best career of any QB from the 2024 draft class?

Minimum: 20%

Median: 40%

Maximum: 95%

"It's pretty uncommon actually for the first guy taken to be the top guy," a member of one team's analytics department said. "Unless you're talking clear-cut -- like Kyler Murray was head and shoulders above [the rest of his 2019 class]. If you have six guys in the top 12, that's a lot of competition."

In only three of the past 10 drafts has the first quarterback selected ranked No. 1 (or tied for the lead) in Weighted Approximate Value by Pro Football Reference, a quick estimate of career value. So there's a fair point there, regardless of Williams' talent. After all, we just saw Carolina bench Bryce Young, the 2023 No. 1 pick.

Will Davante Adams be traded before the 2024 trade deadline?

Minimum: 0%

Median: 43%

Maximum: 85%

Some people were quite optimistic Adams -- who is a potential trade candidate, as a good receiver with a cheap salary on what is expected to be a losing Raiders team -- would be dealt by the deadline. Others, not so much. Adams has been the subject of trade talk over the past year, most notably involving the Jets.

"It's kind of the difference between what should happen and what I think will happen," said one staffer who voted on the low end to this question. "The best time to trade Davante already probably passed." Another respondent said: "I think the biggest thing there is [GM] Tom Telesco doesn't trade very much."

Will Georgia'sCarson Beckbe a top-10 pick in the 2025 draft?

Minimum: 20%

Median: 66%

Maximum: 90%

One survey-taker was hesitant to go too high given how many highly touted prospects end up falling down draft boards over the course of the year, despite Beck's current status among the top QBs in the class. (Beck is Mel Kiper Jr.'s top-ranked QB right now.)

"There were [early] mock drafts with Brad Kaaya as the No. 2 pick," they said, referencing the former Miami quarterback who was eventually selected in the sixth round by the Lions in 2017. On Beck, the staffer added, "I wouldn't put anyone else [in the 2025 quarterback class] with 50% odds. ... He's the highest."

Another analytics mind said, "He's the No. 1 guy to me right now. He's got more size than the other guys in his class, strong arm, productive, plays at a top program, mobile."

Will a player break the single-season passing yards record (5,477) in 2024?

Minimum: 0%

Median: 20%

Maximum: 70%

Will a player break the single-season sack record (22.5) in 2024?

Minimum: 0%

Median: 15%

Maximum: 60%

Opinions on these records varied, with respondents weighing the extra game in the season, the difficulty of breaking a record and the evolving state of the game.

"You look at last year, I don't think anybody came within 800 yards [of the passing record] despite having the extra game," said one analytics employee who was very bearish on either record being broken. "Anytime you're talking about an all-time record, the odds are going to be low."

See past NFL analytics surveys: 2022 | 2021 | 2020