REVIEW: Grand Theft Auto IV
The run-up to "Grand Theft Auto IV" has been considerably less
ballyhooed than last year's over-the-top "Halo 3" debut. Yet when
"GTA IV" parks on store shelves on April 29, the latest entry in
the controversial video game franchise could be the most lucrative
launch in entertainment history - and one that many people may not
even know about.
Analysts predict Take-Two Interactive Software and Rockstar
Games' open-world, action-driving game will easily top last year's
record-breaking $300 million first-week sales of Microsoft and
Bungee Studios' first-person shooter "Halo 3" - and without a
similar marketing bonanza.
With the launch of "GTA IV" on both the Xbox 360 and
PlayStation 3, Rockstar is seemingly steering in one direction: the
downlow.
"Rockstar wants to control the message all the time," says Sam
Kennedy, editorial director for the gaming site 1UP.com. "They
want this to be seen and perceived exactly the way they want.
That's why - outside of the official trailers they released -
people haven't seen a lot of gameplay footage in advance of 'GTA
IV' shipping. They want to build that hype."
Take-Two and Rockstar declined to comment for this story, but
following a 90-minute demonstration of the game in January, "GTA
IV" writer and Rockstar vice president Dan Houser told The
Associated Press that the infamous game developer, who's also
responsible for the "Manhunt" and "Bully" games, was being
overly protective for one very important reason.
"We want people to be really excited and not know everything by
the time they play the game," said Houser. "Of course, we want
them to understand what they're buying, but we want there to be
surprises along the way."
The desire for intel about "GTA IV" has been mounting since
the game was announced at the Electronic Entertainment Expo in 2006
and again in August when Take-Two revealed "GTA IV" would be
delayed until 2008. Other than four popular online trailers and
some embargoed press previews, there hasn't been much information.
The silent treatment is a savvy business move, according to
Steve Fowler, vice president of strategy for the Ayzenberg Group, a
company that specializes in interactive entertainment advertising
and marketing. Fowler worked as a product manager on the original
"Halo."
"'Halo 3' took the approach of going after a less core
consumer, but they had an ulterior motive," says Fowler.
"Microsoft was using 'Halo 3,' their biggest property, to try and
sell more Xbox 360s. Take-Two and Rockstar are free of that
constriction because 'GTA IV' is on both platforms, so they're only
motivated to be true to what their game is and sell copies of their
game."
Thus far, Rockstar's advertising campaign has consisted of
several outdoor elements - billboards, bus wraps, building murals,
phony wanted posters - spread across North America and Europe as
well as a few viral videos featuring satirical commercials for
fictitious "GTA" businesses posted online. GameStop and Microsoft
have also aired their own TV commercials featuring the game.
The less-is-more approach might also have something to do with
the controversial series' M-rated content. "GTA IV" anti-hero
Niko Bellic, an imigrant-turned-gangster from Eastern Europe, isn't
exactly one of the Mario Brothers. As Bellic, players can hijack
cars, earn cash for criminal activities, flee from police, drive
drunk, kill innocent bystanders and patronize strip clubs.
"If you look at their marketing, that's not a selling point at
all," says Fowler. "They've gone with this comic book look and
feel. It's not about graphic violence. It's not about profanity.
It's more about the feeling, expression and the emotional
attachment to the characters and the world."
The drama extends beyond Liberty City, the game's fictional
locale, and into the real world. Video game publisher Take-Two,
which owns Rockstar, has been subject to a hostile takeover bid
from Electronic Arts since February. Take-Two has been holding out,
refusing to enter formal talks with EA or any other suitor until
April 30, the day after "GTA IV" goes on sale.
Huge first-day "GTA IV" sales could certainly boost the value
of Take-Two's shares. The lack of a "Halo 3"-sized advertising
campaign isn't expected to affect sales, according to video game
analysts. Unlike the Xbox 360-exclusive "Halo 3," the ninth
"GTA" game is being simultaneously released for Sony's and
Microsoft's consoles, a first for the 10-year-old gaming franchise.
"The addressable market at launch is about 24 million
consoles," says Michael Pachter, video game analyst at Wedbush
Morgan. "So how many will sell in the first week or month or few
months? Nine million. That's the number. That's about a 35 percent
attach rate. By year's end, it'll be somewhere between 11 and 13
million because more consoles will be sold before the holidays."
By comparison, "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End,"
which had the highest grossing film debut in 2007, fleeced $404
million in its first six days around the world. However, a movie
ticket is significantly less than the $59.99 price tag for "GTA
IV." And software sales are usually less concerned with opening
week figures, according to Pachter.
"Opening week doesn't have any bearing on lifetime sales,"
says Pachter. "With box office, three to five times opening
weekend sales is what movies usually do. Games can slip under the
radar and be slow and steady sellers like 'Wii Fit' will be or
highly anticipated like 'GTA IV' and literally sell half of their
lifetime units in the first week."
Such sales would beat the record held by "Grand Theft Auto: San
Andreas," the previous "GTA" console game that sold over 9
million copies when it was released for the PlayStation 2 in 2004,
according to NPD Group, which tracks video game sales. To meet the
demand, retailers such as GameStop and Best Buy are opening their
doors at midnight for special "GTA IV" launch events.
"I would expect April to be a monster sales month for the video
game industry, one that is likely to break all sorts of previous
records," says Anita Frazier, video game analyst for NPD Group.
"We release our April sales data on May 15, and I get goosebumps
thinking of the numbers we'll see on that day."
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