Betting tips for Sunday's wild-card games: Odds, analysis, picks and trends

NFL wild-card weekend continues Sunday with a trio games. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix and the upstart Denver Broncos hit the road to take on Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills to get the day started.

Sunday's second game features NFL rushing leader Saquon Barkley and the Philadelphia Eagles hosting the Green Bay Packers, and the Washington Commanders visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to cap off the day of playoff action.

We'll break down each game and offer lines, props, picks, trends and more to help you prepare for any betting opportunities.

Sunday's wild-card tripleheader kicks off with the Broncos (10-7, 12-5 ATS) visiting the AFC East champion Bills (13-4, 10-7 ATS).

Buoyed by the stellar play of MVP contenderJosh Allen, the Bills (+550 to win the Super Bowl) had won 10 of 11 games before dropping their regular-season final in a game that had no impact on seeding and saw Buffalo rest most of its starters.

Meanwhile, the Broncos (75-1 to win the Super Bowl) appear to have found their quarterback of the future (and present), with Bo Nix leading Denver to the playoffs in his rookie campaign.

The Bills' playoff run last season ended with a divisional-round loss to the eventual champion Kansas City Chiefs, while the Broncos will be making their first postseason appearance since the 2015 season and come into Sunday's game as significant underdogs.

Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET on CBS/Paramount+.

Game lines

Matchup predictor (by ESPN analytics): Bills 68.1% chance to win

Player props

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Joe Fortenbaugh's pick

Bills -8.5 (-110)

This game is going to be ugly. Credit to Denver for an impressive campaign, but dive into the numbers and you'll see the Broncos went 1-7 with a minus-37 point differential against teams with a winning record this season, which obviously doesn't include their Week 18 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs backups. Denver's non-Week 18 wins came against clubs that combined to post a 48-88 record this season (.353), which isn't exactly the type of résumé you look for when assessing which teams have a realistic chance of rolling into Buffalo in January and hanging tight with Josh Allen and the Bills.

Betting trends and more

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• Bills games are 12-5 to the over this season, including 7-1 at home. Eight of their past nine games have gone over the total.


• The Bills are 8-0 outright at home this season (5-3 ATS).


• The Bills have gone over their team total in 13 of 17 games, the highest rate in the NFL. The Broncos are 12-5 to their team total over, tied for the second-highest rate. The Broncos have gone over their team total in seven straight games.


• Over the past 10 seasons, rookie quarterbacks are 0-5 outright and 1-4 ATS in road playoff games.


• Under Sean Payton, the Broncos are 3-3 outright when getting at least seven points (4-2 ATS). The Broncos are 4-1 ATS this season when getting at least four points.


• Favorites of at least nine points are 15-1 outright and 13-3 ATS in the wild-card round. The only loss was by the only road team to be that big a favorite (2011New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks, -10).


• Broncos first-half overs are 13-4 this season, the second-highest mark in the NFL.


• The Bills are 7-1 ATS over the past eight meetings.

The Eagles (14-3, 11-6) host the Packers (11-6, 9-8 ATS) in Sunday's second wild-card matchup and will welcome back quarterback Jalen Hurts to the lineup. Hurts, who hasn't played since suffering a concussion in Week 16, made it through the concussion protocol, coach Nick Sirianni said Friday, clearing him to play.

Of course, Hurts and Philadelphia (+650 to win the Super Bowl) also will have Saquon Barkley to lean on. Barkley sat out the regular-season finale despite being within striking distance to break the NFL's all-time single-season rushing record.

The Eagles and Packers (20-1 to win the Super Bowl) have already played once this season, with Green Bay falling34-29 to Philadelphia in São Paulo, Brazil, in the season opener for both teams.

The Packers dropped their final two regular-season games, while the Eagles have won 12 of their past 13.

Sunday afternoon's kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET on FOX.

Game lines

Matchup predictor (by ESPN analytics):Eagles 51.2% chance to win

Player props

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Tyler Fulghum's pick

Eagles -5 (-110)

Even though they're not the betting favorite to do so, the team in the NFC I think most likely to reach the Super Bowl is the Philadelphia Eagles. That's why I'm going to take them to win and cover in their wild-card round matchup with the Green Bay Packers, a rematch of the first game we saw this season, which was a wild shootout down in Brazil, but that was an Eagles team that had a defense that was not playing close to the level at which they are right now. I thing their offense is the best in the NFL with everyone healthy, and for that reason, I like them to win and cover in the wild-card round against Green Bay.

Betting trends and more

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• Including the playoffs, the Packers' Matt LaFleur is the only head coach in the Super Bowl era to have a winning outright record as an underdog (min. two games). LaFleur is 19-16 outright as an underdog.


• LaFleur also has the best cover percentage as an underdog by any coach with at least 10 games in that role, going 25-10 ATS (.714). Since 2021, the Packers are 20-7 ATS as underdogs and 14-5 ATS as road underdogs.


• Unders are 4-0 in Eagles playoff games under Nick Sirianni. Unders are 7-1 in Eagles playoff games since 2018.


• The Eagles are 9-3 ATS in their past 12 games.


• The Eagles have covered three straight home games.


• The Packers are 12-5 ATS in the first quarter, the best mark in the NFL. The Eagles are 5-12 ATS in the first quarter, tied for third worst in the NFL.

The final game of Sunday's tripleheader features the Commanders (12-5, 11-6 ATS) visiting the NFC South champion Buccaneers (10-7, 10-7 ATS).

Behind rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, Washington (40-1 to win the Super Bowl) heads into the playoffs on a five-game win streak. After enduring a four-game losing streak in the middle of the season, Tampa Bay (25-1 to win the Super Bowl) won six of its past seven games to close out the regular season and secure the NFC South title.

The Commanders' last postseason appearance came in the 2020-21 season and ended with a wild-card loss to a Tom Brady-led Buccaneers team that would go on to win the Super Bowl.

Washington and Tampa Bay have already met this season as well, with the Buccaneers notching a 37-20 win at home in their season opener.

Sunday night's kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET on NBC/Peacock.

Game lines

Matchup predictor (by ESPN analytics):Buccaneers 58.3% chance to win

Player props

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Tyler Fulghum's pick:

Total points OVER 50.5 (-105)

The highest total game of the wild-card round down in Tampa with Jayden Daniels and the Commanders visiting the Buccaneers. I think we see a lot of points in this matchup, the number just not high enough for me. I'm going to play the over. I think we get a 50-plus point shootout with Jayden Daniels going up against that Buccaneers defense, using his arm and his legs to create explosives.

And what a season Baker Mayfield has had along with Mike Evans and rookie Bucky Irving on that Buccaneers offense. I think this might be the most entertaining game of the wild-card round, and that's why my favorite way to bet it is for it to go over the number.

Betting trends and more

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• The Commanders are 0-3 ATS in their past three road games, with all three games going under the total.


• Four straight Buccaneers games have gone over the total. Overs are 12-5 in Buccaneers games this season, including 11 of their past 14.


• Commanders overs are 5-1 when they face teams with winning records this season. Overs are 4-0 in the Buccaneers' past four games against teams with winning records.


• Over the past 10 seasons, rookie quarterbacks are 0-5 outright and 1-4 ATS in road playoff games.


• Dan Quinn is 22-15 ATS and 18-19 outright in his career as an underdog. The Commanders are 4-2 ATS and 3-3 outright as underdogs this season, with overs going 5-1 in those games.


• Buccaneers first-half overs are 12-4-1 this season, the third-highest over rate in the NFL. Commanders first-half overs are 10-5-2, the fourth-highest rate.

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