Commanders vs. Eagles: 'Monday Night Football' betting odds, picks, tips
Week 10 of the NFL season wraps up Monday night with thePhiladelphia Eagles(-11, 43.5) hosting the Washington Commandersat Lincoln Financial Field (ESPN, 8:15 ET).
After an exciting Sunday of action, we have one more opportunity to wager on professional football. So which plays do our analysts like the most?
Fantasy and sports betting analysts Eric Moody andAndré Snellings, ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walderand Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz provide their top plays for the matchup.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET,Lincoln Financial Field
The Eagles put their undefeated 8-0 record on the line against the Commanders in an NFC East matchup on Monday night. While the Eagles easily defeated the Commanders back in Week 3, sinceTaylor Heinicketook over at QB, Washington is 2-1. In fact, the Commanders QB is 8-2-1 ATS in his past 11 starts, and Washington's past five games have been decided by five points or fewer. With that in mind, who are you taking?
Schatz: I think the spread in this game is just about right, given the big gap between these teams. However, I like going under. The Eagles and Commanders are two of the slower-paced teams in the league and rank third and 14th in defensive DVOA, respectively. Obviously, the Eagles' offense has also been great, but the Commanders' offense has not -- even in those Heinicke games. They have a minus-6.6% offensive DVOA since Heinicke took over.
Moody: I like the Eagles. Sometimes I'm nervous when I see double-digit spreads, but the Eagles are the only undefeated team in the league. Philadelphia ranks third with 391 total yards per game and second with 28.1 points scored per game. The Eagles have been the favorite in all of their games this season with double-digit spreads in their last three. This season, Philadelphia has covered the spread in all four of its home games. In primetime against the Commanders, I expect nothing less.
Marks:The Eagles will win tonight. They are the better team, at home, rested, and healthy. Divisional games are close, especially the second time around, so I will pass on laying the double digits. Both defenses have strengths - Washington a solid rush defense, Eagles (+15) turnover margin (best in the NFL). Division games have hit the under this season (29-13-1).
Cash out your parlay too early? Get burned on a last-second play? Come commiserate with Jason Fitz and his bad beats of the week.
Philadelphia's offense has been clicking on all cylinders this season. Jalen Hurts has passed for 2,042 yards, with 12 touchdowns and only two interceptions this year. He currently has the second-best odds (+250) to win MVP behind onlyJosh Allen (+220), and tied withPatrick Mahomes (+250).What are your thoughts on Hurts, both for the rest of the season and his passing props for Monday (O/U: 243.5 yards, 1.5 TDs)?
Schatz: I'm not a believer in Hurts winning the MVP because I think that voters will perceive the Eagles as more of a complete team than either the Chiefs or Bills. In the case of the Bills, they will be wrong, but Allen is seen as driving Buffalo's wins more than Hurts is seen as driving Philadelphia's wins.
Snellings: I'll go Hurts forunder 243.5 passing yards. That line is very specific ... Hurts has thrown for 243 or fewer yards in four of his past five games, as the Eagles' defense and running game have kept him from having to air it out. In what profiles as a slow-paced, low-scoring contest, Hurts likely won't have to put the ball in the air any more this week than usual.
What is your favorite player prop for Monday night's game?
Walder:Give meCurtis Samuel over 42.5 receiving yards (-109). Between James Bradberry, Darius Slay andC.J. Gardner-Johnson, the Eagles' secondary is scary. And the numbers back it up: The Eagles have by far the best defensivereceiver tracking metrics in the league. But that's actually why I like Samuel here. With lockdown corners all over, Washington could use more of the "RB-esque" routes that Samuel often runs. Plus, the Eagles' defense is elite at preventing open receivers and contesting the catch, but merely pedestrian at preventing YAC. My personal model, which doesn't include the RTM information, has Samuel at 52 yards.
Snellings:I'll roll withMiles Sandersover 68.5 yards rushing. Sanders has hit that mark in three straight games, four of his past five, and six out of eight games for the season. The Commanders are a middling rush defense and the Eagles project to be playing with a lead for most of this game.
Moody: My pick isBrian Robinson Jr. over 33.5 rushing yards. Over the last three games, the Commanders have averaged 32 rushing attempts. Robinson has averaged 13.6 rushing attempts and 45.6 rushing yards per game over that time frame. In the absence of J.D. McKissic, Robinson should see a high number of touches. The Eagles' defensive front ranks 18th in run-stop win rate. Philadelphia also allows 121.4 rushing yards per game. This season, Robinson has beat this yardage yardstick in three out of five games.
Marks: I love the Curtis Samuel prop bet Seth is playing! I'll also play AJ Brown over 26.5 longest reception (-115). Washington plays a ton of man coverage, and Brown gets a heavy target rate share at 35% vs man. His matchup will be against Kendall Fuller - if you want to call it a matchup at all - Brown should dominate.He has connected with Hurts for at least one 30 yards completion in five of his last eight games
