Eagles at the bye: Is it time to panic?
Following the Philadelphia Eagles' 33-16 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneerson Sunday, coach Nick Sirianni tried to inject some perspective into a disappointed locker room.
"He said, 'It's early. We're 2-2,'" said tight end Dallas Goedert. "'It's not college football. Our season is not over. We've got a lot of football ahead of us.'"
Sirianni has been head coach long enough to know what awaited the team when they touched down back in Philly that evening.
The stress levels over the state of the Birds are high. And with the Eagles entering their bye, they'll face two weeks' worth of scrutiny before they have a chance to quell nerves.
This is not a new phenomenon -- it's a byproduct of the city's extraordinary passion -- but the circumstances have this fan base even more on edge than normal.
There is not much stomach for turbulence right now, not after a 1-6 collapse to end last season. Sunday felt similar enough to the wild-card loss to Tampa in January -- the defense getting shredded, the players looking listless for large chunks of the game -- to stoke concerns that there is something fundamentally broken with this team.
The criticism is being felt on a national level as well, with Sirianni's job security now becoming a regular topic of conversation.
Is panic warranted? Let's take a closer look at the state of affairs.
The offense can still be their saving grace
The personnel remains top shelf. The offensive line is one of the league's best, ranking fifth in both pass block win rate (68%) and run block win rate (74%). A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are one of the top receiver duos in the game. Saquon Barkley was added to the mix this season and has been everything the front office could have asked for. He ranks third in rushing yards (435), is an explosive play waiting to happen with four runs of 20-plus yards, has scored five touchdowns and is averaging 6.0 yards per carry.
There's a ton of good here, but Jalen Hurts' play needs to stabilize. He has seven turnovers on the season -- second most behindWill Levis -- and 27 since the start of 2023, which leads all players.
What we're seeing in-game is different from what we saw this summer. During training camp, Hurts ran the offense with high efficiency. He got the ball out of his hands fast with short and intermediate rhythm throws, allowing his playmakers to create. The result was one interception all camp. But through four games, Hurts ranks 32ndamong QBs in average time before throw (3.1 seconds). He needs to get back to the quick game.
Brown (hamstring) has been out of the lineup since Week 1, and there were always going to be some bumps in the road as Hurts adjusted to new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore's system -- the fourth different scheme he has had to learn in five NFL seasons. On the other hand, he's getting paid like a franchise quarterback (over $50 million a year) and needs to get back to playing like one.
The defense could be their undoing
It's not hard to picture the offense taking flight but the forecast for the defense is not nearly as rosy.
General manager Howie Roseman is going to become a greater focal point of frustration soon if things don't turn around for a defense that ranks in the bottom half in many categories including defensive efficiency (24th), opponent yards per play (30th), points allowed (23rd) and takeaways (T-28th).
His big free agent splash on that side of the ball was edge rusher Bryce Huff, who has zero sacks and one solo tackle. The expectation was that he'd develop into a three-down player, but his struggles against the run have limited his playing time. The best edge player through four games has been 36-year-old Brandon Graham. The other notable signing, safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, has produced mixed results.
The front office invested heavily in former Georgia players in recent drafts, using first-round picks on defensive tackles Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis and edge rusher Nolan Smith Jr.. Davis and Smith have not delivered sufficient returns to date, while Carter has shown to be incredibly gifted but also inconsistent. Roseman did seemingly nail his most recent first-round selection, as rookie corner Quinyon Mitchell has been mostly dynamite.
Bottom line, the pass rush has been anemic (their six sacks are the third fewest in the league), the back seven has been up and down, and tackling has been a major problem (they have 15 missed tackles against the Bucs alone, according to the team's counting).
Veteran defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has not been the salve many were hoping for. Like with Moore and the offense, some lumps should be expected as the players get used to a new system. But ultimately, this could be a matter of flawed roster construction.
The schedule is an ally
According to ESPN Analytics, the Eagles have the fourth-easiest remaining strength of schedule. Their next four games after the bye are against the Cleveland Browns (1-3), New York Giants (1-3), Cincinnati Bengals (1-3) and Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4). For all the hand-wringing, they could head into the second half of their season several games over .500.
And the NFC East remains a winnable division. The Dallas Cowboys (2-2) and Giants (1-3) have their own flaws, and it's to be seen whether the Washington Commanders and their impressive rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels can keep a hot hand.
The path to the postseason doesn't feel all that arduous.
Coaching is the wild card
Then again, this season was never going to be about the opponent. Or the talent.
It was all about whether this team could properly get off the mat after imploding down the stretch last season, and how well they'd handle adversity when it inevitably hit in 2024.
It was about whether CEO Jeffrey Lurie, who pondered Bill Belichick at some point during the nine days between the end of last season and when the organization signaled Sirianni would return as head coach, made the right decision, particularly in light of the seasonlong strain between Hurts and Sirianni during the 2023 campaign.
The coaching to this point -- from Sirianni and his staff -- has left something to be desired. Several of Sirianni's in-game decisions, namely on fourth down, have backfired. The offense has yet to score even a single point in the first quarter. The Eagles are tied for 20thin penalties per game (seven), have the second-most giveaways (eight) and have yet to win the turnover battle through four games.
All are largely a reflection of coaching.
When it comes to the details, Sirianni has a lot of little things he needs to get ironed out.
But from a more global perspective, his No. 1 job is to keep this team from fraying. He ceded offensive control to Moore this offseason and has assumed more of a CEO role, with one of the main priorities being to maintain the culture.
It went sideways on him last season. By the end, it didn't matter if they were playing the Bucs or the San Francisco 49ers or the 6-11 Giants. They weren't together enough to muster even mediocre play.
Sirianni has a head-coaching record of 36-19. He has taken the Eagles to the postseason in each of his three seasons at the helm and nearly captured a Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl LVII.
Will the players respond to him the way they did his first season, when they rallied from a 2-5 start to make the playoffs? Or is the team simply in a prolonged tailspin, dating back to last season, that there's no maneuvering out of?
Either outcome feels entirely possible. No wonder this fan base is in such a twisted state.
