"As a result, Pennsylvania will likely see lower-than-estimate income tax collections in May that could offset a significant portion of April's higher-than-estimate receipts," Wolf said in a statement.
In April, Pennsylvania rang up $3.7 billion in revenue, or $256 million above projections, in the year's second-biggest tax collection month. The money boosted the state's running surplus for the fiscal year to $437 million, or nearly 2 percent over projections.
Rendell and lawmakers are preparing to negotiate a $28 billion-plus budget for the new fiscal year that begins July 1. The budget that Rendell proposed in February relies on his projection of a $427 million surplus that he can carry over from this fiscal year.
Senate Republican aides, however, warned that the stagnant economy will affect next year's tax returns and should warrant a cautious spending approach.