Parenting: The Education Bubble - is it coming?

May 16, 2011

Just terrifying.

And I'm sure that sentiment is shared by parents across the Delaware and Lehigh Valleys, and the nation.

So, doesn't something have to give? At some point?

In an article posted by Slate.com writer Annie Lowrey, that very question is posed. Just like the dot.com bubble, just like the housing bubble, one day (perhaps) the education bubble will burst.

Lowrey lays it out in simple terms (her article can be found here: http://www.slate.com/id/2293766/).

The price of buying a home skyrocketed for a variety of reasons during the 2000's, partly due to bottom-dwelling interest rates, aggressive loan deals, and speculation. People kept paying those higher prices, until they couldn't anymore. Other economic forces conspired to blow a crater in the real estate industry, a crater we are still trying to fill this day.

Prices got too high, people stopped paying them, the bubble bursts.

Lowrey suggests (but does not predict) that the same forces could be at work with higher education. It keeps getting more and more expensive. People keep paying these higher prices, thinking college is their ticket to a successful career.

So, what happens when people pay exorbitant tuition fees, graduate, and find out that their diploma doesn't equal a new job?

The bubble would burst.

I know what you're thinking: geez, that's happening right now. Graduates are feeling the double whammy of graduating with huge loans to pay off, and no job.

If education acted like the housing bubble, high school students would start blowing off college and begin looking for a job right away. I mean, if I might not get a job after going to school for four years, what do I have to lose anyway?

Then, in this hypothetical scenario, the market forces would begin to work in the customer's favor. Lower demand - fewer people wanting to go to college - might force admissions offices across the country to reduce tuition costs to attract more students and compete with other colleges.

In the meantime, I will still be saving money for my children's' education. But it would be nice to see a scenario play out in my - the customer's - favor.

What do you think?

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